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Hot Stove Contract Comparisons

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  • SPRO contract comparisons from the most recent contracts given out by your favorite baseball team for free agents, arbitration eligible and others. Find out what's going on in contract negotiations, what they've been paid, what they should have with the Stat Geek Baseball's SPRO Salary Projection system, and more.

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  • Free Agents

    Week of March 19

    Trevor Cahill signs 1 year $1,500,000 contract with A's.

    SPRO Analysis - Oakland gets bargain in Cahill. SPRO $2,168,000.

    Alex Cobb signs 4 year $57,000,000 contract with Orioles, including $20m in deferred payments.

    SPRO Analysis - Baltimore overpays for Cobb. Surprise with a late signing that it's an overpay and the fact that $20m is deferred drops the value down to around $47m, but it's still an overpay. One very good year after two injury prone ones. Not enough track record for this. SPRO 3 years $26,066,000.

    Free Agents

    Week of March 12

    Neil Walker signs 1 year $4,000,000 contract with Yankees, plus $500,000 incentives.

    SPRO Analysis - New York Yankees get bargain in Walker. Yes, decreasing in value from 12.6 to 8.4 to 5.3 to 4.4 in PEVA value over the last four years, but still probably worth more than he got. Not easy to get a 0.362 OBP player for that price, although the SPRO value does not represent the end of free agent bargain basement pricing now in effect for most. SPRO $8,284,000.

    Justin Grimm signs 1 year $1,250,000 contract with Royals, plus $300,000 incentives.

    SPRO Analysis - Kansas City gets bargain in Grimm. Very slight due to Grimm getting money when cut by the Cubs. SPRO $1,705,000.

    Resigned with Team

    Week of March 12

    Eduardo Suarez signs 7 year $66,000,000 contract extension with Reds.

    SPRO Analysis - Cincinnati pays market value/overpays for Suarez. It's a good contract on a per year basis, but we wouldn't have gone over four years for Suarez. SPRO 4 years $36,915,000.

    Jose Altuve signs 5 year $151,000,000 contract extension with Astros, starting in 2020. With current contract, comes out to 7 years $163.5m.

    SPRO Analysis - Houston pays market value for Altuve. Considering the very club friendly deal for this year and next, it's a bargain ($6m in 2018, $6.5m in 2019), but for the out years it's market value. SPRO 7 years $224,029,000.

    Free Agents

    Week of March 5

    Jake Arrieta signs 3 year $75,000,000 with Phillies, including opt out after 2 years for player and 2 option years at $20m per with $10m incentives per year.

    SPRO Analysis - Philadelphia pays market value for Arrieta. He'll make the Phils better in the short term, but we woudn't have done this for a rising team due to losing draft picks and international money. But he was worth the money, and even could have gotten more years. SPRO 3 year $73,791,000.

    Lance Lynn signs 1 year $12,000,000 with Twins, plus $2m incentives.

    SPRO Analysis - Minnesota pays market value for Lynn. SPRO 1 year $13,109,000.

    Jonathan Lucroy signs 1 year $6,500,000 with A's.

    SPRO Analysis - Oakland gets bargain in Lucroy. Yes, down year last year, but still worth more. SPRO 1 year $11,933,000.

    Ichiro Suzuki signs 1 year $750,000 plus $1.25m incentives with Mariners.

    SPRO Analysis - Seattle gets bargain in Ichiro. Yes, we know this is the bargain basement time and Ichiro is 44, but we still think it's a bargain. SPRO 1 year $4,187,000.

    Jon Jay signs 1 year $3,000,000, plus $1.5m incentives, with Royals.

    SPRO Analysis - Kansas City gets bargain in Jay. SPRO 1 year $5,735,000.

    Resign with Team

    Week of March 5

    Carlos Gonzalez signs 1 year $8,000,000 contract with Rockies.

    SPRO Analysis - Colorado gets bargain in Gonzalez. Small bargain. SPRO 1 year $9,622,000.

    Mike Moustakas signs 1 year $6,500,000 plus $2.2m incentives with Royals, plus $15m mutual option for 2nd season.

    SPRO Analysis - Kansas City gets bargain in Moustakas. It had always seemed unwise for Moustakis to turn down the $17.4m one year qualifying offer, but he did. And now Kansas City is getting him for much less than he's worth. SPRO 1 year $10,111,000 or 3 year $31,407,000.

    Carlos Correa signs 1 year $1,000,000 pre arbitration contract with Astros.

    SPRO Analysis - Houston pays market value for Correa. We'd have given him the max for a pre-arb player, but it's in line. Surprised no extension was agreed to. SPRO 1 year $1,250,000 or 5 year $54,850,000.

    Free Agents

    Week of February 26

    Lucas Duda signs 1 year $3,500,000 plus $1.3m incentives with Royals.

    SPRO Analysis - Kansas City gets bargain in Duda. It's bargain basement time, and the Royals have got a bargain, even though Duda has been diminishing. Still work more than that, although reaching back to glory days, as SPRO has, might be a stretch.. SPRO 1 year $9,861,000.

    Tim Lincecum signs 1 year $1,000,000, plus incentives, with Rangers.

    SPRO Analysis - Texas pays market value for Lincecum. SPRO 1 year $950,000.

    Resign with Team

    Week of February 26

    Paul DeJong signs 6 year $26,000,000 contract extension with Cards, plus options that could make it an 8 year $51.5m contract.

    SPRO Analysis - St. Louis overpays for DeJong. Way, way, way too early to give this out. Great first 3/4 of a MLB season in 2017, but only 124 days of service time. Could have signed a similar pact next year if he proved not a fluke. SPRO 1 year $550,000.

    Free Agents

    Week of February 19

    Logan Morrison signs 1 year $6,500,000 with vesting option for 2019 at $8m with $1m buyout, included above, plus $1m per year incentives, with Twins.

    SPRO Analysis - Minnesota gets bargain in Morrison. Morrison had his best year by far last year, but we can understand why that's a concern. We still think he's worth more. SPRO 1 year $8,861,000 or 2 year $18,256,000.

    Francisco Liriano signs 1 year $4,000,000, plus $1m incentives, with Tigers.

    SPRO Analysis - Detroit gets bargain in Liriano. He's frustratingly inconsistent. One very good year followed by two bad. He just had two bad. Is he about to have a good one? SPRO 1 year $6,371,000.

    Jesse Chavez signs 1 year $1,000,000, plus $2m incentives, with Rangers.

    SPRO Analysis - Arizona get bargain in Chavez. SPRO 1 year $3,706,000.

    Carlos Gomez signs 1 year $4,000,000, plus $1m incentives, with Rays.

    SPRO Analysis - Tampa Bay gets bargain in Gomez. Yes, down years for three seasons and a late signing in the bargain bin when clubs no longer reach back to glory years. But still worth more than this. SPRO 1 year $9,185,000.

    Cameron Maybin signs 1 year $3,250,000, plus $750,000 incentives, with Marlins.

    SPRO Analysis - Miami gets bargain Maybin. Bit of the same dynamic as Gomez, but with a more consistent profile, but less possibility of greatness emerging again. SPRO 1 year $6,277,000.

    Jarrod Dyson signs 2 year $7,500,000, plus $250,000 incentives per year, with Diamondbacks.

    SPRO Analysis - Arizona pays market value for Dyson. SPRO 1 year $3,818,000.

    J.D. Martinez signs 5 year $110,000,000 with Red Sox, plus options.

    SPRO Analysis - Boston overpays for Martinez. How can you say that? Over 100 RBI in 119 games. Because, J.D. Martinez has only played over 123 games once in his career. He can't help you win if he doesn't play. It's called durability. SPRO 5 year $90,266,000.

    Joaquin Benoit signs 1 year $1,000,000 with Nationals, plus $1m incentives.

    SPRO Analysis - Washington gets bargain in Benoit. Yes, he's been going downhill for years, but with extra dollars tied to performance, it's a bargain. SPRO 1 year $1,762,000.

    Resign with Team

    Week of February 19

    Chris Tillman signs 1 year $3,000,000 contract with Orioles, plus $7m incentives.

    SPRO Analysis - Baltimore gets bargain in Tillman. Incentive laden contract good for club as likelihood of Tillman exceeded the $3m value high after only one very down year. SPRO 1 year $9,179,000.


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Stat Geek Baseball and Salary Projections

The salary projections from Stat Geek Baseball and Baseball Evaluation are the result of over 5,000 hours of research into how baseball statistics and our PEVA player ratings correlate to payroll, and the results in the Salary Projection model are meant to mirror how baseball pays its players.

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