Baseball Hot Stove, February 2014

Week of February 17

Free Agent Players
Nelson Cruz signs 1 year $8,000,000 contract, plus $750,000 incentives, with Orioles.
SPRO Analysis - Baltimore pays market value for Cruz. Yes, it's lower than the qualifying offer, but it's about right. SPRO $8,435,000.

Chris Capuano signs 1 year $2,250,000 contract with Red Sox, plus $2.75m incentives.
SPRO Analysis - Boston gets bargain in Capuano. With the incentives, the contract is right on the money, but the Red Sox are getting him without that risk. SPRO 1 years $5,415,000.

Ubaldo Jimenez signs 4 year $50,000,000 contract with Orioles.
SPRO Analysis - Baltimore pays market value for Jimenez. We wouldn't have gone the 4th year, but the $ per season are about right. SPRO 3 years $42,680,000.

Arbitration Contracts
Brett Gardner signs 4 year $52,000,000 contract with Yankees, including club option for 5th year at $12.5m with $2m buyout.
SPRO Analysis - New York Yankees overpay for Gardner. Just too high right now. We think the 2014 salary is fine, but would have waited till the end of this season to see if Gardner progressed to be worth this length and term. SPRO 3 years $18,103,000; 2014 - $5,026,000.

Homer Bailey signs 6 year $105,000,000 contract with Reds, including club option for 7th year at $25m w/$5m buyout.
SPRO Analysis - Cincinnati overpays for Bailey. Good pitcher, certainly, not great yet, so for us this is too high, too long, too much SPRO 4 years $43,626,000.

Pre-Arbitration Contracts
Andrelton Simmons signs 7 year $58,000,000 contract with Braves.
SPRO Analysis - Atlanta overpays for Simmons. These contracts are hard to judge, as paying a player with only 1.125 years of service time guesses not only when he'll start arbitration (maybe next year or the year after), but projects way into the future for a player with a good, but limited track record. The new ballpark must have a casino, because the Braves are gambling great on this and other contracts. Too long for us. SPRO 3 years $6,676,000.

Week of February 10

Free Agent Players
James McDonald signs 1 year $1,000,000 contract, plus incentives, with Cubs.
SPRO Analysis - Chicago Cubs get bargain in McDonald. Not a good year last year, but has had them in the recent past, plus he's still young. SPRO $1,982,000.

A.J. Burnett signs 1 year $15,000,000 contract with Phillies, including $1.75m incentives, and player/team options for 2nd year between $7.5m and $12.75m and $1m buyout.
SPRO Analysis - Philadelphia overpays for Burnett. A.J. had a good year last year, but not as good as some think. Peripherals were not as strong as his ERA and IP totals suggest. But, ... considering a pitcher of his talent usually gets more than a one year deal, and we think that's okay, it's not too bad. He gives you innings and keeps you in games. Plus, he's old, and we know Ruben Amaro likes that. SPRO $10,771,000, but okay with additional 2 years.

Tommy Hanson signs 1 year $2,000,000 contract, plus incentives, with Rangers.
SPRO Analysis - Texas gets bargain in Hanson. Bad year last year, but still young, and a good deal for a 5th starter still in his arbitration years. SPRO $3,761,000.

Arbitration Contracts
Michael Brantley signs 4 year $25,000,000 contract with Indians, including club option for 5th year at $11m w/$1m buyout.
SPRO Analysis - Cleveland pays market value for Brantley. Wouldn't have gone for the 4th year, but the money is right on the money. SPRO 3 years $15,811,000.

Pre-Arbitration Contracts
Craig Kimbrel signs 4 year $42,000,000 contract with Braves, including club option for 5th year at $13m w/$1m buyout, plus $3.5m incentives.
SPRO Analysis - Atlanta gets bargain in Kimbrel. SPRO 4 years $53,237,000. Yes, that high. Kimbrel is one of the few relievers, i.e. young relievers, who is starting his career in Rivera territory. Don't know where that's going, but Atlanta, for now, got a very good deal.

Julio Teheran signs 6 year $32,400,000 contract with Braves, including club option for 7th year at $12m w/$1m buyout.
SPRO Analysis - Atlanta overpays for Teheran. That's not really the right adjective, but in total dollars it probably is. This new world order of extensions to players with less than 2 years of service has given way to lots of club risk. Too many years for us for a player with one very good year. SPRO 3 years $7,295,000.

Week of February 3