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Stat
Geek Baseball,
the Best Ever Book
Publication
Date: 11/10/2012
UPDATED THRU
THE 2013
POSTSEASON
The
Best Yankee!
The Best Red Sox!
The Best of Every Team!
Kindle/Computer
Edition
Great
gift for the baseball
fan in your life.
Paperback
Details
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Baseball Evaluation
and Salary Projections
The salary
projections from baseballevaluation.com are the result of over 5,000
hours of research into how baseball statistics and our PEVA
player ratings correlate to payroll, and
the results in the Salary Projection model are meant to mirror how
baseball pays its players.
PEVA
Player
Rating BOXSCORE
32.000 - Fantastic
(MVP/Cy Young Award Canddiate)
20.000 - Great (All
League)
15.000 - Very Good (All
Star Caliber)
10.000 - Good (Plus
Starter)
3.500 - Average Player
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Stat Geek Baseball
Hot
Stove League 2013-2014
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It's
that time of year. The season and World Series are done and
your
teams area looking for way to make them better and compete for the
playoffs next year. And there are questions aplenty.
What
free agents have been offered the new $14.1m qualifying offer that
could
garner them compensatory draft picks if they leave? Who is
arbitration eligible and are you willing to go to arbitration with that
player or cut him free? What are your favorite players worth
anyway?
Below the staff at baseballevaluation.com and Stat Geek
Baseball
will attempt to keep you up to date with the current transactions, as
well as give our opnion, and the Stat Geek Baseball Salary Projection's
opinion of what dollars and cents should have been paid to the signed
player. Hope the Hot Stove of your favorite team works out
well.
Happy stoving! Arbitration
Checklist 2014
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The
Hot Stove League
Free Agents, Options, and Player Signings
Find
out what's going on in contract negotiations, what they've been paid,
what they should have with the Stat Geek Baseball's SPRO Salary
Projection system, and more.
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June 2
Free Agent Contracts
Kendrys Morales signs
1 year $7,500,000 contract with Twins.
SPRO Analysis - Minnesota
overpays for Morales. Morales signed this late deal after the
draft, allowing Minnesota to keep its #1 draft pick for this Qualifying
Offer player. But it's still not worth it. This
contract,
with its prorated full season value of $12 million, is actually about
where Morales should be full term. He's really only worth
$7.5m
per year, due to his injury past. See our Qualifying
Offer page for more details.
Week of May 12
Free Agent Contracts
Randy Wolf signs
1 year $1,000,000 contract with incentives with Marlins.
SPRO Analysis - Miami
gets bargain in Wolf. It's a bit hard to put a true value on
this
as we're now six weeks into the season, but had Wolf signed prior to
the season, SPRO was stating $3,301,000 (which includes all
incentives), so take that for what it's worth. Prior to not
pitching last year, Wolf had been remarkably durable, which is proving
to be a very valuable commodity in 2014.
Week of April 28
Arbitration Contracts
Chirs Johnson signs
3 year $23,500,000 extension for 2015-17 with $10m club option and $1m
buyout. 2014 season salary is $4.75m wit Braves.
SPRO Analysis - Atlanta
pays market value for Johnson. SPRO 3 years $16,6000,000, but
okay with the additional year now that 2014 has begun.
Week of April 14
Pre-Arbitration Contracts
Sean Doolittle signs
5 year $10,500,000/$13,750,000 (if arbitraiton eligible in 2015)
contract extension for 2014-2018 with two options years at $6m/$6.5m
and $500,000 buyout with A's.
SPRO Analysis - Oakland
overpays for Doolittle. It's not an overpay as far as number,
but
it is as far as years. At 1.122 years of Major League Service
Time, Oakland's taking a significant gamble that he'll continue on this
good career path, and if true, and he becomes their closer, they get a
bargain. But if not? Too long a deal.
SPRO 2 years
$2,445,000.
Jed Gyorko signs
5 year $35,000,000 contract extension for 2015-2019 with $13m club
option and $1m buyout for 6th year with Padres.
SPRO Analysis - San
Diego overpays for Gyorko. Now we're just dipping over into
does
not make enough sense territory with these pre-arb deals.
Gyorko
had a very good rookie season, but he wasn't Mike Trout, and he's
started off 2014 batting 0.152. Yeh, we know he plays in a
notorious pitcher's park, but... his service time starts the year at
1.000, and San Diego has one more year before they're even looking
toward arbitration. There was no hurry, but they're willing
to
pay him $13m five years hence and they don't even know what they truly
have. SPRO says one year extension, that's all, $554,000. Now
that's probably gonna be higher at the end of the year, but we would
just want to wait till then.
Week of April 7
Free Agents
Ryan Roberts signs
1 year $1,000,000 contract with $250,000 incentives with Red Sox.
SPRO Analysis - Boston
gets bargain in Roberts. SPRO $2,024,000.
Week of March 31
Pre-Arbitration Contracts
Player Resigns with Club
Yunel Escobar signs
2 year extension for 2015-16 seasons at $13m with club
option for 2017 year with Rays.
SPRO Analysis - Tampa Bay gets bargain in Escobar. SPRO for 2015-6 is $17,928,000.
Jason Kipnis signs
6 year $52,500,000 contract with club option $16.5m w/$2.5m buyout for 7th year with Indians.
SPRO Analysis - Cleveland
pays market value for Kipnis. Another in the long line of
extensions to pre-arb players to get cost certainty, we don't know how
confortable we are with the couple extra years, but the numbers are
right in line for the four we like, SPRO of 4 years $21,836,000, so
we're not gonna complain. Just the cost of doing business in
today's baseball world.
Chris Archer signs
6 year $25,000,000 contract with club options with Rays.
SPRO Analysis - Tampa
Bay
overpays for Archer. We like Chris Archer, as we do with many
of
these long term deal candidates with limited Major League service time
(0.156 for Archer, under 1 year). But, ... we're not okay
with
them. SPRO says that a pitcher with only 150 innings of
experience does not have a long enough track record to make this
commitment and we don't think that waiting one more year, still within
the pre-arbitration period would be too much to ask or too costly a
wait as the track record lengthens.
Week of March 24
Free Agents
Chris Young signs
1 year $1,200,000 contract with $3,475,000 incentives with Mariners.
SPRO Analysis - Seattle
overpays for Young. We don't usually think of an overpays for
this slight an amount as SPRO says $850,000, but we wanted to make a
point. Small point, yes. Young has had three of the
last
four years at a minimal or zero value for his club. Probably
time
to prove your worth for one year from a durability standpoint, which is
somewhat what they're doing here with the incentive structure.
Not sure if those incentives should be necessary.
Kevin Frandsen signs
1 year $900,000 contract with $700,000 incentives with Nationals.
SPRO Analysis - Washington
pays market value for Frandsen. SPRO $1,122,000,
including salary and incentives.
Player Resigns with Club
Miguel Cabrera signs
8 year extension for 2016-23 seasons at $248m with 2 additional club
option year. Total with current deal 10 years $292m.
SPRO Analysis - Detroit
overpays for Cabrera. Cabrera is the best hitter in baseball,
with some small nod to Mike Trout, but the years are just too long.
Now we don't know if that slight downturn at the end of last
season due to injury shows the start of a trend, but no matter, the 10
year term is 2 years too long for us. SPRO 8 years
$208,115,000.
Pre-Arbitration Contracts
Yan Gomes signs
6 year $23m extension with Indians.
SPRO Analysis - Cleveland
overpays for Gomes. Okay, getting a bit ridiculous.
Yan Gomes may end up being great, but ... there's also a
reasonable chance at 1.083 years of Major League experience, that he
ends up being less than that. Too early, ... should at least
wait till next year to see how he responds to full-time duty.
We can't get past an arbitration level contract of SPRO 2
years $1,107,000.
Mike Trout signs
6 year $144.5m extension for 2015-2020, $145.5m including 2014 season
with Angels.
SPRO Analysis - Los
Angeles Angels of Anaheim pays market value for Trout. We
think
it's a bit high on the out year side, but won't criticize that because
we also believe Trout may have been better off with a slightly shorter
deal, taking to free agency a year or two earlier. SPRO 7
years
$128,796,000 for the best young player in the game.
Sterling Marte signs
6 year $51m w/two club option years with Pirates.
SPRO Analysis - Pittsburgh
overpays for Marte. Another in the new sign them early trend,
but
Marte is not long enough into his career for us to give him a long term
deal. We'd play the pre-arbitration year thing one by one and
check
track record longer first. SPRO 2 year $1,133,000.
Week of March 17
Player Resigns with Club
David Ortiz signs
extension for 2015 season at $16m with 2 additional vesting/club
options for 2015/2016. Current 2014 deal pays Ortiz $15m.
SPRO Analysis - Boston
gets bargain for Ortiz. It's slight, the bargain that is, but
it
is a bargain for past production. SPRO 3 years $52,464,000.
SPRO
2014 - $16,891,000; 2015 - $17,480,000.
Pre-Arbitration Contracts
Jose Quintana signs
5 year $21m (if not arbitration eligitble 2015) to $26.8m contract with
White Sox, including club options for $10.5m and $11.5m with $1m buyout
for 6th and 7th years.
SPRO Analysis - Chicago
White Sox overpay for Quintana. Yes, it's the new trend,
signing
pre-arbitration players to long contracts, but it has lots of risk.
SPRO 3 year $7.565m. We think the $ for
that term on
the signed deal are too high as well at $9.65m.
For more contract projections, check out Stat
Geek Baseball $SPRO, now on sale 1/2 price, $9.95.
Week of March 10
Free Agent Players
Ervin Santana signs
1 year $14,100,000 contract with Braves.
SPRO Analysis - Atlanta
overpays for Santana. Odd to say an overpay when Santana got
a
lot less overall than he expected and it's certainly not an overpay
from a total $ standpoint. For one year, SPRO says
$10,497,000
and 4 years $44,529,000, but Santana always wanted more than that.
Player Resigns with Club
Glen Perkins signs
4 year $22,175,000 contract, with team option for $6.5m and $700,000
buyout for 4th year, with Twins. Contract also contains no
trade
clauses and possible team option to player option if traded.
Deal
overrides and extends previous deal.
SPRO Analysis - Minnesota
gets bargain in Perkins. Much of the bargain provision stems
from
a previous deal which is underpaying him, but even in the extension and
option years, Perkins is taking a salary below his value. If
he
were pitching for a contending, big market team, you might see a
different story. SPRO 3 years $29,289,000.
Week of March 3
Free Agent Players
Oliver Perez signs
2 year $4,250,000 contract with Diamondbacks.
SPRO Analysis - Arizona
overpays for Perez. Too inconsistent over the last five years
to
warrant more than a one year deal for us, and his penchant for high to
low stretches suggest we might be in for a low. Only worth an
SPRO of 1 year and $1,467,000, which is about what he was worth last
year.
Pre-Arbitration Contracts
Manny Machado signs
1 year $519,000 contract with Orioles, including $125,000 incentives
($100,000 Gold Glove, $25,000 All-Star).
SPRO Analysis - Baltimore
pays market value for Machado. SPRO $358,000, including all
incentives. Longer term deal 3 years $4,384,000.
Josh Donaldson signs
1 year $500,000 contract with A's.
SPRO Analysis - Oakland
gets bargain in Donaldson. Yes, a bargain for the 4th place
finisher in the MVP voting last year, but with less than arbitration
level service time. SPRO $976,000 for one year. 4
years
$24,474,000 for a longer term deal.
Matt Carpenter signs
6 year $52,000,000 contract with Cardinals, including an $18.5m option
w/$2m buyout.
SPRO Analysis - St.
Louis pays market value for Carpenter. We're not going to be
too
hard on this one, although the length is too long for us for a year 2
MLST player. But the dollars are right in the near term with
SPRO
at 4 years and $25,209,000. The four years under the actual
contract comes to $24m, if you include the buyout in those years, right
in the SPRO ballpark.
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See the Arbitration
Checklist
for information on players who filed and exchanged figures in the
arbitration hearing process, plus those that signed prior to their
hearing.
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FREE
AGENT CHANGES
There
are no longer Type A, B, and C free agents to figure out who gives up
what when signed a free agent. Only those that have been
offered
the Qualifying Offer of $14.1m or not. For those players
signed
by another club, the signing club will lose a pick from #11 to their
second round pick. The former club gets a
compensatory pick
afer the first round in reverse order of the MLB standings.
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| Qualifying Offers Extended |
Qualifying
Offers of $14.1m for a one year contracts have been extended to 13 free
agents. If rejected and signed by another team, their former
teams will receive an end of the first round draft pick with the
signing team losing either a first or second round pick. This
year's players given the Qualifying Offers are: Carlos Beltran (SLN),
Robinson Cano (NYA), Hiroki Kuroda (NYA), Curtis Granderson (NYA),
Shin-Shoo Choo (CIN), Nelson Cruz (TEX), Stephen Drew (BOS), Jacoby
Ellsbury (BOS), Mike Napoli (BOS), Ervin Santana (KCA), Brian McCann
(ATL), Kendrys Morales (SEA), and Ubaldo Jimenez (CLE).
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| Red
Ruffing |
Pete Rose |
Leo
Durocher |
Lefty
Grove |
Ryan Howard |
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Note: PEVA
- Player Rating for Season or Career. Age - Age
reflects player age at the end of the calendar year.
Baseball
Evaluation
and all materials on this site are the 2014 Copyright and
intellectual property of JDP ECON and their licensors. All
worldwide
rights reserved. The Baseball Evaluation system was developed
independently of Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball
Players Association and is not endorsed by or associated in
any
way with either organization.
Note:
All Baseball Evaluation Stats were developed by JDP Econ
& are the proprietary property of JDP ECON. All
rights
reserved.
If Baseball Evaluation stats are used in articles,
etc.,
please
credit baseballevalution.com. |
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