Stat Geek Baseball, the Best Ever Book

Stat Geek Baseball,
the Best Ever Book
Publication Date: 11/10/2012

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Baseball Evaluation
and Salary Projections

The salary projections from are the result of over 5,000 hours of research into how baseball statistics and our PEVA player ratings correlate to payroll, and the results in the Salary Projection model are meant to mirror how baseball pays its players.

PEVA Player

 32.000 - Fantastic
(MVP/Cy Young Award Canddiate)
20.000 - Great (All League)
15.000 - Very Good (All Star Caliber)
10.000 - Good (Plus Starter)
3.500 - Average Player

Stat Geek Baseball

Hot Stove League 2013-2014

Stat Geek Baseball, Salary Projections 2014
It's that time of year.  The season and World Series are done and your teams area looking for way to make them better and compete for the playoffs next year.  And there are questions aplenty.  What free agents have been offered the new $14.1m qualifying offer that could garner them compensatory draft picks if they leave?  Who is arbitration eligible and are you willing to go to arbitration with that player or cut him free?  What are your favorite players worth anyway?  Below the staff at and Stat Geek Baseball will attempt to keep you up to date with the current transactions, as well as give our opnion, and the Stat Geek Baseball Salary Projection's opinion of what dollars and cents should have been paid to the signed player.  Hope the Hot Stove of your favorite team works out well.  Happy stoving!  Arbitration Checklist 2014

The Hot Stove League
Free Agents, Options, and Player Signings

Find out what's going on in contract negotiations, what they've been paid, what they should have with the Stat Geek Baseball's SPRO Salary Projection system, and more.

June 2
Free Agent Contracts
Kendrys Morales signs 1 year $7,500,000 contract with Twins.
SPRO Analysis -
 Minnesota overpays for Morales.  Morales signed this late deal after the draft, allowing Minnesota to keep its #1 draft pick for this Qualifying Offer player.  But it's still not worth it.  This contract, with its prorated full season value of $12 million, is actually about where Morales should be full term.  He's really only worth $7.5m per year, due to his injury past.  See our Qualifying Offer page for more details.

Week of May 12

Free Agent Contracts
Randy Wolf signs 1 year $1,000,000 contract with incentives with Marlins.
SPRO Analysis -
 Miami gets bargain in Wolf.  It's a bit hard to put a true value on this as we're now six weeks into the season, but had Wolf signed prior to the season, SPRO was stating $3,301,000 (which includes all incentives), so take that for what it's worth.  Prior to not pitching last year, Wolf had been remarkably durable, which is proving to be a very valuable commodity in 2014.

Week of April 28

Arbitration Contracts
Chirs Johnson signs 3 year $23,500,000 extension for 2015-17 with $10m club option and $1m buyout.  2014 season salary is $4.75m wit Braves.
SPRO Analysis -
 Atlanta pays market value for Johnson.  SPRO 3 years $16,6000,000, but okay with the additional year now that 2014 has begun.

Week of April 14

Pre-Arbitration Contracts
Sean Doolittle signs 5 year $10,500,000/$13,750,000 (if arbitraiton eligible in 2015) contract extension for 2014-2018 with two options years at $6m/$6.5m and $500,000 buyout with A's.
SPRO Analysis -
 Oakland overpays for Doolittle.  It's not an overpay as far as number, but it is as far as years.  At 1.122 years of Major League Service Time, Oakland's taking a significant gamble that he'll continue on this good career path, and if true, and he becomes their closer, they get a bargain.  But if not?  Too long a deal.  SPRO 2 years $2,445,000.

Jed Gyorko signs 5 year $35,000,000 contract extension for 2015-2019 with $13m club option and $1m buyout for 6th year with Padres.
SPRO Analysis -
 San Diego overpays for Gyorko.  Now we're just dipping over into does not make enough sense territory with these pre-arb deals.  Gyorko had a very good rookie season, but he wasn't Mike Trout, and he's started off 2014 batting 0.152.  Yeh, we know he plays in a notorious pitcher's park, but... his service time starts the year at 1.000, and San Diego has one more year before they're even looking toward arbitration.  There was no hurry, but they're willing to pay him $13m five years hence and they don't even know what they truly have. SPRO says one year extension, that's all, $554,000.  Now that's probably gonna be higher at the end of the year, but we would just want to wait till then.

Week of April 7

Free Agents
Ryan Roberts signs 1 year $1,000,000 contract with $250,000 incentives with Red Sox.
SPRO Analysis -  Boston gets bargain in Roberts.  SPRO $2,024,000.

Week of March 31

Pre-Arbitration Contracts
Player Resigns with Club
Yunel Escobar signs 2 year extension for 2015-16 seasons at $13m with club option for 2017 year with Rays.
SPRO Analysis -  Tampa Bay gets bargain in Escobar.  SPRO for 2015-6 is $17,928,000.

Jason Kipnis signs 6 year $52,500,000 contract with club option $16.5m w/$2.5m buyout for 7th year with Indians.
SPRO Analysis -  Cleveland pays market value for Kipnis.  Another in the long line of extensions to pre-arb players to get cost certainty, we don't know how confortable we are with the couple extra years, but the numbers are right in line for the four we like, SPRO of 4 years $21,836,000, so we're not gonna complain.  Just the cost of doing business in today's baseball world.

Chris Archer signs 6 year $25,000,000 contract with club options with Rays.
SPRO Analysis -  Tampa Bay overpays for Archer.  We like Chris Archer, as we do with many of these long term deal candidates with limited Major League service time (0.156 for Archer, under 1 year).  But, ... we're not okay with them.  SPRO says that a pitcher with only 150 innings of experience does not have a long enough track record to make this commitment and we don't think that waiting one more year, still within the pre-arbitration period would be too much to ask or too costly a wait as the track record lengthens.

Week of March 24

Free Agents
Chris Young signs 1 year $1,200,000 contract with $3,475,000 incentives with Mariners.
SPRO Analysis -  Seattle overpays for Young.  We don't usually think of an overpays for this slight an amount as SPRO says $850,000, but we wanted to make a point.  Small point, yes.  Young has had three of the last four years at a minimal or zero value for his club.  Probably time to prove your worth for one year from a durability standpoint, which is somewhat what they're doing here with the incentive structure.  Not sure if those incentives should be necessary.

Kevin Frandsen signs 1 year $900,000 contract with $700,000 incentives with Nationals.
SPRO Analysis -  Washington pays market value for Frandsen.  SPRO $1,122,000, including salary and incentives.

Player Resigns with Club
Miguel Cabrera signs 8 year extension for 2016-23 seasons at $248m with 2 additional club option year.  Total with current deal 10 years $292m.
SPRO Analysis -  Detroit overpays for Cabrera.  Cabrera is the best hitter in baseball, with some small nod to Mike Trout, but the years are just too long.  Now we don't know if that slight downturn at the end of last season due to injury shows the start of a trend, but no matter, the 10 year term is 2 years too long for us.  SPRO 8 years $208,115,000.

Pre-Arbitration Contracts
Yan Gomes signs 6 year $23m extension with Indians.
SPRO Analysis -  Cleveland overpays for Gomes.  Okay, getting a bit ridiculous.  Yan Gomes may end up being great, but ... there's also a reasonable chance at 1.083 years of Major League experience, that he ends up being less than that.  Too early, ... should at least wait till next year to see how he responds to full-time duty.  We can't get past an arbitration level contract of SPRO 2 years $1,107,000.

Mike Trout signs 6 year $144.5m extension for 2015-2020, $145.5m including 2014 season with Angels.
SPRO Analysis -  Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim pays market value for Trout.  We think it's a bit high on the out year side, but won't criticize that because we also believe Trout may have been better off with a slightly shorter deal, taking to free agency a year or two earlier.  SPRO 7 years $128,796,000 for the best young player in the game.

Sterling Marte signs 6 year $51m w/two club option years with Pirates.
SPRO Analysis -  Pittsburgh overpays for Marte.  Another in the new sign them early trend, but Marte is not long enough into his career for us to give him a long term deal.  We'd play the pre-arbitration year thing one by one and check track record longer first.  SPRO 2 year $1,133,000.

Week of March 17

Player Resigns with Club
David Ortiz signs extension for 2015 season at $16m with 2 additional vesting/club options for 2015/2016.  Current 2014 deal pays Ortiz $15m.
SPRO Analysis -
 Boston gets bargain for Ortiz.  It's slight, the bargain that is, but it is a bargain for past production.  SPRO 3 years $52,464,000. SPRO 2014 - $16,891,000; 2015 - $17,480,000.  

Pre-Arbitration Contracts
Jose Quintana signs 5 year $21m (if not arbitration eligitble 2015) to $26.8m contract with White Sox, including club options for $10.5m and $11.5m with $1m buyout for 6th and 7th years.
SPRO Analysis -
 Chicago White Sox overpay for Quintana.  Yes, it's the new trend, signing pre-arbitration players to long contracts, but it has lots of risk.  SPRO 3 year $7.565m.  We think the $ for that term on the signed deal are too high as well at $9.65m.

For more contract projections, check out Stat Geek Baseball $SPRO, now on sale 1/2 price, $9.95.

Week of March 10

Free Agent Players
Ervin Santana signs 1 year $14,100,000 contract with Braves.
SPRO Analysis -
 Atlanta overpays for Santana.  Odd to say an overpay when Santana got a lot less overall than he expected and it's certainly not an overpay from a total $ standpoint.  For one year, SPRO says $10,497,000 and 4 years $44,529,000, but Santana always wanted more than that.

Player Resigns with Club
Glen Perkins signs 4 year $22,175,000 contract, with team option for $6.5m and $700,000 buyout for 4th year, with Twins.  Contract also contains no trade clauses and possible team option to player option if traded.  Deal overrides and extends previous deal.
SPRO Analysis -
 Minnesota gets bargain in Perkins.  Much of the bargain provision stems from a previous deal which is underpaying him, but even in the extension and option years, Perkins is taking a salary below his value.  If he were pitching for a contending, big market team, you might see a different story.  SPRO 3 years $29,289,000.

Week of March 3

Free Agent Players
Oliver Perez signs 2 year $4,250,000 contract with Diamondbacks.
SPRO Analysis -
 Arizona overpays for Perez.  Too inconsistent over the last five years to warrant more than a one year deal for us, and his penchant for high to low stretches suggest we might be in for a low.  Only worth an SPRO of 1 year and $1,467,000, which is about what he was worth last year.

Pre-Arbitration Contracts
Manny Machado signs 1 year $519,000 contract with Orioles, including $125,000 incentives ($100,000 Gold Glove, $25,000 All-Star).
SPRO Analysis -
 Baltimore pays market value for Machado.  SPRO $358,000, including all incentives.  Longer term deal 3 years $4,384,000.

Josh Donaldson signs 1 year $500,000 contract with A's.
SPRO Analysis -
 Oakland gets bargain in Donaldson.  Yes, a bargain for the 4th place finisher in the MVP voting last year, but with less than arbitration level service time.  SPRO $976,000 for one year.  4 years $24,474,000 for a longer term deal.

Matt Carpenter signs 6 year $52,000,000 contract with Cardinals, including an $18.5m option w/$2m buyout.
SPRO Analysis -
 St. Louis pays market value for Carpenter.  We're not going to be too hard on this one, although the length is too long for us for a year 2 MLST player.  But the dollars are right in the near term with SPRO at 4 years and $25,209,000.  The four years under the actual contract comes to $24m, if you include the buyout in those years, right in the SPRO ballpark.

See the Arbitration Checklist for information on players who filed and exchanged figures in the arbitration hearing process, plus those that signed prior to their hearing.


There are no longer Type A, B, and C free agents to figure out who gives up what when signed a free agent.  Only those that have been offered the Qualifying Offer of $14.1m or not.  For those players signed by another club, the signing club will lose a pick from #11 to their second round pick.  The former club  gets a compensatory pick afer the first round in reverse order of the MLB standings.

Qualifying Offers Extended

Qualifying Offers of $14.1m for a one year contracts have been extended to 13 free agents.  If rejected and signed by another team, their former teams will receive an end of the first round draft pick with the signing team losing either a first or second round pick.  This year's players given the Qualifying Offers are: Carlos Beltran (SLN), Robinson Cano (NYA), Hiroki Kuroda (NYA), Curtis Granderson (NYA), Shin-Shoo Choo (CIN), Nelson Cruz (TEX), Stephen Drew (BOS), Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS), Mike Napoli (BOS), Ervin Santana (KCA), Brian McCann (ATL), Kendrys Morales (SEA), and Ubaldo Jimenez (CLE).

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Note: PEVA - Player Rating for Season or Career.  Age - Age reflects player age at the end of the calendar year.

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Note: All Baseball Evaluation Stats were developed by JDP Econ & are the proprietary property of JDP ECON. All rights reserved. If Baseball Evaluation stats are used in articles, etc., please credit
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