• Stat Geek Baseball

Hot Stove Contract Comparisons

April 2014 to November 2014

  • SPRO contract comparisons from the contracts given out by your favorite baseball team for free agents, arbitration eligible and others. Find out what's going on in contract negotiations, what they've been paid, what they should have with the Stat Geek Baseball's SPRO Salary Projection system, and more.

  • Hot Stove
  • Week of November 24

    Free Agents

    Pablo Sandoval signs 5 year $95,000,000 contract with Red Sox, including club option for 6th year at $17m and $5m buyout.
    SPRO Analysis - Boston overpays for Sandoval. Yes, we know, this is a player who had great postseasons and helped SF win three in five. But, ... oh, those buts. That's with a pitching staff that could withstand the loss of a Cain, and win, a loss of a Lincecum at former Lincecum levels, and win. It had a Buster Posey. Sandoval's been good, but we're not up for this much dough for a player with good to very good, but not great regular season numbers and a struggle with conditioning. SPRO 4 years $53,752,000.

    Hanley Ramirez signs 4 year $88,000,000 contract with Red Sox, including vesting option for 5th year.
    SPRO Analysis - Boston overpays for Ramirez. This will turn out to be one of the worst signings of the winter. Way too much for a player who never quite reaches his potential and has a ping pong history with injury. SPRO 4 years $44,282,000. Yes, half.

    Re-signed with Club

    Jason Frasor signs 1 year $1,800,000 contract with Royals, including 2nd year option at $2m.
    SPRO Analysis - Kansas City gets bargain in Frasor. Frasor's been a solid pitcher the last two years. SPRO 1 year $2,538,000.

    Kyle Seager signs 7 year $100,000,000 contract with Mariners, including 8th year option.
    SPRO Analysis - Seattle pays market value for Seager. A year too long for our liking, but right on the money as far as the money. Seager's an emerging player entering his best years with an ability to hit in a pitcher's ballpark. SPRO 6 years $83,328,000.

    Week of November 17

    Free Agents

    Adam LaRoche signs 2 year $25,000,000 contract with White Sox.
    SPRO Analysis - Chicago White Sox pays market value for LaRoche. A tad high for the two years, but in the ballpark, and we would have been okay with a third year. SPRO 2 years $22,193,000.

    Billy Butler signs 3 year $30,000,000 contract with A's.
    SPRO Analysis - Oakland pays market value for Butler. Right on the money. SPRO 3 years $29,780,000.

    Russell Martin signs 5 year $82,000,000 contract with Blue Jays.
    SPRO Analysis - Toronto overpays for Martin. This is way out of line. Yes, we known Martin just had his best season in his career, but it was his first plus starter year in five. Plus he keeps having a slow decrease in games played and at age 32-37, that's not bound to turn in the other direction. SPRO 4 years $47,749,000.

    Re-signed with Club

    Giancarlo Stanton signs 13 year $325,000,000 contract with Marlins.
    SPRO Analysis - Miami overpays for Stanton. If you could guarantee that Giancarlo would have the year he just had, on average, over the next decade plus, then yes, he would be worth it, but that's a big if. Now, the years is just nuts to start with, but the second smaller legume is the fact that Stanton is currently on a $19 million per year (free agent years) pace over the course of his career. Now we do think that his career will have a stronger trajectory than that, but we would have waited another year to hand out this large a contract. We'd never go for that many years though. SPRO 6 years $109,362,000.

    Week of November 10

    Free Agents

    A.J. Burnett signs 1 year $8,500,000 contract with Pirates. Unknown incentives.
    SPRO Analysis - Pittsburgh pays market value for Burnett. He turned down a $12.25m option with the Phillies to go back to Pittsburgh, and even though it seems odd to leave millions on the table, at least from a guaranteed standpoint, from Pittsburgh's, it's a solid deal because he's been durable. SPRO $9,268,000.

    Michael Cuddyer signs 2 year $21,000,000 contract with Mets.
    SPRO Analysis - New York Mets overpay for Cuddyer. Yes, we know what he batted over the past two years, in Colorado BTW, so discount as much as you'd like, but the concern here is durability. He's been ping ponging heath, and at the age of 35, just where will that ball land. Good thing is, this should be his trend okay year. SPRO 2 yrs. $10,995,000. SPRO likes durability.

    Chris Young signs 1 year 2,500,000 contract with Yankees, including $3,825,000 in incentives.
    SPRO Analysis - New York Yankees pay market value for Young. SPRO $3,069,000, including incentives.

    Re-signed with Club

    Victor Martinez signs 4 year $70,000,000 contract with Tigers.
    SPRO Analysis - Detroit pays market value for Martinez. We wouldn't have gone the extra year, but the per years number is right in line with SPRO. SPRO 3 years $52,206,000.

    Re-signed with Club

    Koji Uehara signs 2 year $18,000,000 contract with Red Sox.
    SPRO Analysis - Boston pays market value for Uehara. Might even be a bit of a bargain if David Robertson signs for the rumoured amount, but SPRO was okay with the two years deal, and even was okay with a third despite his age. SPRO 2 years $20,745,000.

    Week of October 20

    Re-Signed With Team

    Grady Sizemore signs 1 year $2,000,000 contract with Phillies with $3m performance incentives.
    SPRO Analysis - Philadelphia overpays for Sizemore. Even though the two early deals were for reasonable money, they still overpaid for Sizemore. SPRO $1,398,000. It's as if Philly is still on the bandwagon for adding older players when youth is where they should be going to fill out the roster. Now Grady's not old, but he's not young either, so it's still a bit of a head scratcher unless other moves are on the way to get younger.

    Jerome Williams signs 1 year $2,500,000 contract with Phillies with $1.5m performance incentives.
    SPRO Analysis - Philadelphia pays market value for Williams. Williams pitched much better for Philly in his stop there than the previous two in 2014, but this is a good deal for depth at starter. SPRO $2,450,000.

    Week of October 6

    Re-Signed With Team

    J.J. Hardy signs 3 year $40,000,000 contract with Orioles, including additional team option year.
    SPRO Analysis - Baltimore overpays for Hardy. Hardy is coming off one of his worst seasons in recent memory, even though still a steady shortstop on a team playing well. But this is a case of remembering the past and not acknowledging the passing of time. Hardy will be playing this contract out at 33-35 years of age after three straight declining years of performance with PEVA numbers for 2011-14 of (12.319, 11.247, 10.102, 7.333). SPRO says 3 years $26,431,000.

    Brian Wilson accepts player option of $9,500,000 for one year with Los Angeles Dodgers.
    SPRO Analysis - Los Angeles overpays for Wilson. You can't criticize the player for taking dollars that should never have been offered, so Wilson is getting a bonanza here, based on his last great season way back in 2010. It's been that long since he's been worth this type of money. At this point in his career, we're barely talking above minimum veteran production. SPRO $941,000.

    Week of June 2

    Free Agent Contracts

    Kendrys Morales signs 1 year $7,500,000 contract with Twins.
    SPRO Analysis - Minnesota overpays for Morales. Morales signed this late deal after the draft, allowing Minnesota to keep its #1 draft pick for this Qualifying Offer player. But it's still not worth it. This contract, with its prorated full season value of $12 million, is actually about where Morales should be full term. He's really only worth $7.5m per year, due to his injury past. See our Qualifying Offer page for more details.

    Week of May 12

    Free Agent Contracts

    Randy Wolf signs 1 year $1,000,000 contract with incentives with Marlins.
    SPRO Analysis - Miami gets bargain in Wolf. It's a bit hard to put a true value on this as we're now six weeks into the season, but had Wolf signed prior to the season, SPRO was stating $3,301,000 (which includes all incentives), so take that for what it's worth. Prior to not pitching last year, Wolf had been remarkably durable, which is proving to be a very valuable commodity in 2014.

    Week of April 28

    Arbitration Contracts

    Chirs Johnson signs 3 year $23,500,000 extension for 2015-17 with $10m club option and $1m buyout. 2014 season salary is $4.75m wit Braves.
    SPRO Analysis - Atlanta pays market value for Johnson. SPRO 3 years $16,6000,000, but okay with the additional year now that 2014 has begun.

    Week of April 14

    Pre-Arbitration Contracts

    Sean Doolittle signs 5 year $10,500,000/$13,750,000 (if arbitraiton eligible in 2015) contract extension for 2014-2018 with two options years at $6m/$6.5m and $500,000 buyout with A's.
    SPRO Analysis - Oakland overpays for Doolittle. It's not an overpay as far as number, but it is as far as years. At 1.122 years of Major League Service Time, Oakland's taking a significant gamble that he'll continue on this good career path, and if true, and he becomes their closer, they get a bargain. But if not? Too long a deal. SPRO 2 years $2,445,000.

    Jed Gyorko signs 5 year $35,000,000 contract extension for 2015-2019 with $13m club option and $1m buyout for 6th year with Padres.
    SPRO Analysis - San Diego overpays for Gyorko. Now we're just dipping over into does not make enough sense territory with these pre-arb deals. Gyorko had a very good rookie season, but he wasn't Mike Trout, and he's started off 2014 batting 0.152. Yeh, we know he plays in a notorious pitcher's park, but... his service time starts the year at 1.000, and San Diego has one more year before they're even looking toward arbitration. There was no hurry, but they're willing to pay him $13m five years hence and they don't even know what they truly have. SPRO says one year extension, that's all, $554,000. Now that's probably gonna be higher at the end of the year, but we would just want to wait till then.

    Week of April 7

    Free Agents

    Ryan Roberts signs 1 year $1,000,000 contract with $250,000 incentives with Red Sox.
    SPRO Analysis - Boston gets bargain in Roberts. SPRO $2,024,000.

Baseball and More Baseball


More About Our Salary Projections

Stat Geek Baseball and Salary Projections

The salary projections from Stat Geek Baseball and Baseball Evaluation are the result of over 5,000 hours of research into how baseball statistics and our PEVA player ratings correlate to payroll, and the results in the Salary Projection model are meant to mirror how baseball pays its players.

  • SPRO