- Hot Stove League
Week of November 30
Re-Signed with Club
Joe Wieland avoids ARBITRATION and signs 1 year $590,000 contract with Dodgers.
SPRO Analysis - LA Dodgers pays market value for Wieland. A bit higher than SPRO's $512,000 figure, but in line with what Wieland was paid in 2015. Okay, we get that.
Tim Collins avoids ARBITRATION and signs 1 year $1,475,000 contract with Royals.
SPRO Analysis - Kansas City overpays for Collins. Yes, we know that Kansas City is a bit giddy from that WS victory, but as Collins did not pitch in 2015, it's a bit high. However, he's in the same category as Wieland above, that's what he was paid in 2015 at the same service level. For us, it's $931,000, although the max reduction rule of 20% from the year before, would have prevented that anyway.
A.J. Ellis avoids ARBITRATION and signs 1 year $4,500,000 contract with Dodgers.
SPRO Analysis - LA Dodgers overpay for Ellis. On a three year slide, although Dodgers were strung by a $4.25m salary in 2015 as basis. SPRO $3,876,000.
Vance Worley avoids ARBITRATION and signs 1 year $2,600,000 contract with Orioles.
SPRO Analysis - Baltimore overpay for Worley. You just gave a DFA guy a raise. Que lastima. SPRO $1,159,000.
Rex Brothers avoids ARBITRATION and signs 1 year $1,420,000 contract with Cubs.
SPRO Analysis - Chicago Cubs get bargain in Brothers. Two years ago he was a 7 PEVA, so there's the thought he can get back there. SPRO $2,090,000.
Tyler Morris avoids ARBITRATION and signs 1 year $900,000 contract with Nationals.
SPRO Analysis - Washington pays market value for Moore. SPRO $819,000.
Peter Bourjos avoids ARBITRATION and signs 1 year $2,000,000 contract with Phillies.
SPRO Analysis - Philadelphia overpays for Bourjos. Not worth this since 2011. SPRO $1,297,000.
Andres Blanco avoids ARBITRATION and signs 1 year $1,450,000 contract with Phillies.
SPRO Analysis - Philadelphia gets bargain in Blanco. Small bargain, but played well in 2015. SPRO $1,450,000.
Jordan Lyles avoids ARBITRATION and signs 1 year $2,975,000 contract with Rockies.
SPRO Analysis - Colorado overpays for Lyles. High salary, $2.475m, last year made this possible. SPRO $1,189,000.
Jacob Turner avoids ARBITRATION and signs 1 year $1,500,000 contract with White Sox.
SPRO Analysis - Chicago White Sox overpay for Turner. Non-tendered, then overpay. Hmmmm. SPRO $594,000.
Brett Wallace avoids ARBITRATION and signs 1 year $1,000,000 contract with Padres.
SPRO Analysis - San Diego pays market value for Wallace. SPRO $840,000.
Chris Gimenez avoids ARBITRATION and signs 1 year $975,000 contract with Rangers.
SPRO Analysis - Texas pays market value for Gimenez. SPRO $789,000.
Nolan Reimold avoids ARBITRATION and signs 1 year $1,300,000 contract with Orioles.
SPRO Analysis - Baltimore overpays for Bourjos. SPRO $965,000.
Colin Cowgill avoids ARBITRATION and signs 1 year $1,000,000 contract with Indians.
SPRO Analysis - Cleveland pays market value. SPRO $856,000.
Eric Sogard avoids ARBITRATION and signs 1 year $1,500,000 contract with A's.
SPRO Analysis - Oakland gets bargain in Sogard. SPRO $1,915,000.
Clayton Richard avoids ARBITRATION and signs 1 year $2,000,000 contract with Cubs.
SPRO Analysis - Chicago Cubs overpay for Richard. SPRO $1,231,000.
Jose Lobaton avoids ARBITRATION and signs 1 year $1,387,500 contract with Nationals.
SPRO Analysis - Washington pays market value for Lobaton. SPRO $1,187,000.
Justin Smoak avoids ARBITRATION and signs 1 year $3,900,000 contract with Blue Jays.
SPRO Analysis - Toronto overpays for Smoak. SPRO $2,931,000.
Free Agent Signings
Zach Greinke signs 6 year $206,500,000 million contract with Diamondbacks, with deferred money bringing present day value down to $190 million.
SPRO Analysis - Arizona overpays for Greinke. SPRO 6 years $158,855,000. Too much for too old for only one player. They won't win with this type of contract. Haven't GM's learned anything lately. What top paid player played for KC this year? You have to go back to the 2009 Yankees for a club paying out this type of dough and still putting out a team that won big. Yes, TV money means salaries will rise, but that's best spread out amongst several top players, not one.
Nori Aoki signs 1 year $5,500,000 million contract with Mariners, including $1.5m incentives and mutual (potential vesting) option for 2017 at $6m.
SPRO Analysis - Seattle pays market value for Aoki. SPRO $4,972,000 with pending second year of $6,787,000.
David Price signs 7 year $217,000,000 million contract with Red Sox.
SPRO Analysis - Boston overpays for Price. David Price is one fine pitcher, but, he's not Clayton Kershaw and that's what this contract is saying. His good years are great; not historic. SPRO 6 years $144,556,000.
Jordan Zimmermann signs 5 year $110,000,000 million contract with Tigers.
SPRO Analysis - Detroit pays Market Value for Zimmermann. We'd have even gone an extra year. SPRO 6 years $125,797,000.
Brayan Pena signs 2 year $5,000,000 contract with Cardinals.
SPRO Analysis - St. Louis pays Market Value for Pena. We wouldn't have gone the second year, but it's okay. SPRO for 1 year $3,115,000.
Jim Johnson signs 1 year $2,500,000 contract with Braves.
SPRO Analysis - Atlanta gets bargain in Johnson. Okay, hard to say bargain with a player that's shown so much decline over the past couple years, but you don't have to reach back too far to see value (8.743 PEVA just two years ago). SPRO 1 year $3,454,000.
Chris Young signs 2 year $13,000,000 contract with Braves.
SPRO Analysis - Boston overpays for Young. Yes, Young was better in 2015 than the previous years, but it's been a long time since he was a plus starter type player, 2011. SPRO 2 years $9,768,000.
Gordon Beckham signs 1 year $1,250,000 contract with Braves, plus $500,000 incentives.
SPRO Analysis - Atlanta gets bargain in Beckham. Only 29 and possible to return to form. SPRO $2,421,000.
Justin DeFratus signs 1 year $750,000 contract with Mariners.
SPRO Analysis - Seattle pays market value for DeFratus. Well, a bit of a bargain with the DFA from Philly costing DeFratus any leverage after a durable, but poor year. SPRO $992,000.
Week of November 23
Re-Signed with Club
Matt Reynolds avoids ARBITRATION and signs 1 year $675,000 contract with Diamondbacks, plus $35,000 incentives.
SPRO Analysis - Arizona pays market value for Reynolds. Slight bargain as SPRO has Reynolds going for $930,000, which actually seems a bit high to us. Matt got on the Major League field after missing 2014 and he's still being paid, for the most part, for things he's done in the past, whether that be by SPRO or by the Diamondbacks.
Free Agent Signings
Chris Iannetta signs 1 year $4,250,000 million contract with Mariners, including $175,000 incentives and option for 2nd year at same level, or $6 million if certain conditions apply. Options can be guaranteed by use.
SPRO Analysis - Seattle gets bargain in Ianetta. Slated to be their regular catcher, the Mariners are getting Ianetta a little cheaper due to his subpar year in 2015. SPRO for 1 year $5,726,000 and okay with a 2nd year at about that same value, considering his bad year wasn't part of an overall slide.
Alex Avila signs 1 year $2,500,000 contract with White Sox.
SPRO Analysis - Chicago White Sox get bargain in Avila. Another down year in 2015 makes for a similar situation here with Avila as with Ianetta above, although Avila is younger, 29 for 2016, and playing good year bad year ping pong. SPRO still sees more value here than what the White Sox are paying, $3,655,000.
Geovanny Soto signs 1 year $2,800,000 contract with Angels.
SPRO Analysis - Los Angeles of Anaheim overpay for Soto. Yes, a bit of a musical chairs here, swapping Iannetta for Soto, but the Angels likely didn't get the best of this bargain. SPRO $1,734,000. Soto, despite a slight uptip last year from 2014, is on a general career slider.
Bud Norris signs 1 year $2,500,000 contract with Braves.
SPRO Analysis - Atlanta gets bargain in Norris. He was really bad in 2015, so how can this be a bargain, you ask. Well, Norris is only 30 years old, had a PEVA of 8.508 (total with playoffs) in 2014, and this is his only down year, so there doesn't appear to be a trend. If he'd have signed last year, you'd have had to give him 3 year $25 million. After 2014, we think his 2015 value will be $5,763,000. Good year for Norris to reestablish value, and we think he will.
J.A. Happ signs 3 year $36,000,000 contract with Blue Jays.
SPRO Analysis - Toronto overpays for Happ. Not worth this type of money; one good back half of 2015; last time he was worth this type of money, 2009. Not likely to work out. SPRO 3 years $20,800,000.
Week of November 16
Re-Signed with Club
Brandon Crawford signs 6 year $75,000,000 contract with Giants.
SPRO Analysis - San Francisco pays market value for Crawford. Going too long for us, but at the right dollars, this contract buys out the last two years of Crawford's arbitration years and four years of free agency. We would have liked more in the three year contract range (SPRO says 3 years $27,538,000), but we understand this. Crawford has been on a steady ascent in his PEVA numbers, so if you're gonna go out six, he's one of those players that might be able to handle it.
Free Agent Signings
Rich Hill signs 1 year $6 million contract with A's.
SPRO Analysis - Oakland overpays for Hill. Usually judicious with its dollars, Oakland went a bit too far here for us. Yes, Hill pitched very well in 29 innings for Boston last year. But, that's only 29 innings and he's never shown a propensity for consistent pitching. SPRO 1 year $2,729,000. And we'd be okay with lots of incentives, but not a $6 million dollar guarantee.
Cliff Pennington signs 2 year $3,750,000 contract with Angels.
SPRO Analysis - Los Angeles of Anaheim overpays for Pennington. Pennington has been trying to play himself out of baseball for a number of years with a RAVE (Rolling Average) value that has decreased every year since 2011. At this point, to us, he's just above a AAAA player with marginal value. Why GM's are so anxious to make these early signs at high dollars for players it doesn't matter if they have or not, is beyond us. SPRO 1 year $1,213,000.
Week of November 9
Re-Signed with Club
A.J. Pierzynski signs 1 year $3,000,000 contract with Braves.
SPRO Analysis - Atlanta gets bargain for Pierzynski. This is one of those difficult comparisons, as A.J. is now being paid for a reduced, sharing the catcher duty role, while last year, he was essentially the top catcher, getting 436 plate appearances, not the plan for 2016 with prospect Bethancourt on the way. So, SPRO says, based on being a regular, A.J. is worth $6,525,000. I guess, if the plan is to play him half the time, then the deal is right on the money.
Colby Rasmus accepts Qualifying Offer 1 year $15,800,000 contract extension with Astros.
SPRO Analysis - Houston overpays for Rasmus. All the press is touting how this is the first time a QA has been accepted, but boy, it should have been. The Astros were nuts to pay Rasmus this for one season; it's what they should be paying him for two. Great accept by Rasmus. SPRO 2 years $16,199,000
Marco Estrada signs 2 year $26 million contract with Blue Jays.
SPRO Analysis - Toronto overpays for Estrada. It's not too bad, giving out a bit of a bonus for a pitcher who'd just did very well in the postseason. However, it's a bit much. SPRO was thinking more in the 3 year $30,003,000 range.
Matt Wieters accepts Qualifying Offer 1 year $15,800,000 contract extension with Orioles.
SPRO Analysis - Baltimore overpays for Wieters. Okay, it's only an overpay for one year as they try to assess his health and whether he'll rebound all the way back to the player he used to be. But, Wieters has been on the downslide for nearly four years and there's no guarantee reaching back will be what occurs going forward. SPRO 2 years $8,140,000. Yes, that's hard reality and we may be wrong. This time next year we'll probably know.
Brett Anderson accepts Qualifying Offer 1 year $15,800,000 contract extension with Dodgers.
SPRO Analysis - Los Angeles Dodgers overpay for Anderson. This is getting a little ridiculous, maybe even redonculous. Anderson has the potential to be a $15 million dollar player, but he's never proven it, mostly due to injury, but that still makes it true. SPRO 2 years $11,079,000. Even if you think last year will be repeated, which it probably can be, he's still only a $10 million player. Under .500 pitcher, one healthy year in six. We would have let him walk.
What the Numbers Above Mean
What They Should Get is a better explanation of the numbers above than what many projections give out. It's not what they will get. The SPRO system has been developed to be accurate to what the numbers project them to be worth in the long run, not what some or many General Managers are willing to pay today. It relies heavily on past performance, plus durability, and does not account for a change of use in the future, so there are times when the SPRO numbers will seem high, because the player going forward is no longer going to be a starter, for example. How accurate is it? We'll see. But in the past, you would not have signed Ryan Howard, Jose Reyes, or Hanley Ramirez to those numbers and be stuck with contracts well above their pay grade. Sometimes the best idea is not to sign someone, even when the fan base is clamoring for more.
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