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Baseball Evaluation
and Salary Projections

The salary projections from baseballevaluation.com are the result of over 5,000 hours of research into how baseball statistics and our PEVA player ratings correlate to payroll, and the results in the Salary Projection model are meant to mirror how baseball pays its players.


PEVA Player
Rating BOXSCORE


 32.000 - Fantastic
(MVP/Cy Young Award Canddiate)
20.000 - Great (All League)
15.000 - Very Good (All Star Caliber)
10.000 - Good (Plus Starter)
3.500 - Average Player







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Hot Stove League 2013-2014

Stat Geek Baseball, Salary Projections 2014
It's that time of year.  The season and World Series are done and your teams area looking for way to make them better and compete for the playoffs next year.  And there are questions aplenty.  What free agents have been offered the new $14.1m qualifying offer that could garner them compensatory draft picks if they leave?  Who is arbitration eligible and are you willing to go to arbitration with that player or cut him free?  What are your favorite players worth anyway?  Below the staff at baseballevaluation.com and Stat Geek Baseball will attempt to keep you up to date with the current transactions, as well as give our opnion, and the Stat Geek Baseball Salary Projection's opinion of what dollars and cents should have been paid to the signed player.  Hope the Hot Stove of your favorite team works out well.  Happy stoving!  Arbitration Checklist 2014

The Hot Stove League
Free Agents, Options, and Player Signings

Find out what's going on in contract negotiations, what they've been paid, what they should have with the Stat Geek Baseball's SPRO Salary Projection system, and more.

For more contract projections, check out Stat Geek Baseball $SPRO, now on sale 1/2 price, $9.95.



Week of February 17

Free Agent Players
Nelson Cruz signs 1 year $8,000,000 contract, plus $750,000 incentives, with Orioles.
SPRO Analysis -
 Baltimore pays market value for Cruz.  Yes, it's lower than the qualifying offer, but it's about right.  SPRO $8,435,000.

Chris Capuano signs 1 year $2,250,000 contract with Red Sox, plus $2.75m incentives.
SPRO Analysis -
 Boston gets bargain in Capuano.  With the incentives, the contract is right on the money, but the Red Sox are getting him without that risk.  SPRO 1 years $5,415,000.

Ubaldo Jimenez signs 4 year $50,000,000 contract with Orioles.
SPRO Analysis -
 Baltimore pays market value for Jimenez.  We wouldn't have gone the 4th year, but the $ per season are about right.  SPRO 3 years $42,680,000.

Arbitration Contracts
Brett Gardner signs 4 year $52,000,000 contract with Yankees, including club option for 5th year at $12.5m with $2m buyout.
SPRO Analysis -
 New York Yankees overpay for Gardner.  Just too high right now.  We think the 2014 salary is fine, but would have waited till the end of this season to see if Gardner progressed to be worth this length and term.  SPRO 3 years $18,103,000; 2014 - $5,026,000.

Homer Bailey signs 6 year $105,000,000 contract with Reds, including club option for 7th year at $25m w/$5m buyout.
SPRO Analysis -
 Cincinnati overpays for Bailey.  Good pitcher, certainly, not great yet, so for us this is too high, too long, too much  SPRO 4 years $43,626,000.

Pre-Arbitration Contracts
Andrelton Simmons signs 7 year $58,000,000 contract with Braves.
SPRO Analysis -
 Atlanta overpays for Simmons.  These contracts are hard to judge, as paying a player with only 1.125 years of service time guesses not only when he'll start arbitration (maybe next year or the year after), but projects way into the future for a player with a good, but limited track record.  The new ballpark must have a casino, because the Braves are gambling great on this and other contracts.  Too long for us.  SPRO 3 years $6,676,000.




Week of February 10

Free Agent Players
James McDonald signs 1 year $1,000,000 contract, plus incentives, with Cubs.
SPRO Analysis -
 Chicago Cubs get bargain in McDonald.  Not a good year last year, but has had them in the recent past, plus he's still young. SPRO $1,982,000.

A.J. Burnett signs 1 year $15,000,000 contract with Phillies, including $1.75m incentives, and player/team options for 2nd year between $7.5m and $12.75m and $1m buyout.
SPRO Analysis -
 Philadelphia overpays for Burnett.  A.J. had a good year last year, but not as good as some think.  Peripherals were not as strong as his ERA and IP totals suggest.  But, ... considering a pitcher of his talent usually gets more than a one year deal, and we think that's okay, it's not too bad.  He gives you innings and keeps you in games. Plus, he's old, and we know Ruben Amaro likes that.  SPRO $10,771,000, but okay with additional 2 years.

Tommy Hanson signs 1 year $2,000,000 contract, plus incentives, with Rangers.
SPRO Analysis -
 Texas gets bargain in Hanson.  Bad year last year, but still young, and a good deal for a 5th starter still in his arbitration years.  SPRO $3,761,000.

Arbitration Contracts
Michael Brantley signs 4 year $25,000,000 contract with Indians, including club option for 5th year at $11m w/$1m buyout.
SPRO Analysis -
 Cleveland pays market value for Brantley.  Wouldn't have gone for the 4th year, but the money is right on the money.  SPRO 3 years $15,811,000.

Pre-Arbitration Contracts
Craig Kimbrel signs 4 year $42,000,000 contract with Braves, including club option for 5th year at $13m w/$1m buyout, plus $3.5m incentives.
SPRO Analysis -
 Atlanta gets bargain in Kimbrel.  SPRO 4 years $53,237,000.  Yes, that high.  Kimbrel is one of the few relievers, i.e. young relievers, who is starting his career in Rivera territory.  Don't know where that's going, but Atlanta, for now, got a very good deal.

Julio Teheran signs 6 year $32,400,000 contract with Braves, including club option for 7th year at $12m w/$1m buyout.
SPRO Analysis -
 Atlanta overpays for Teheran.  That's not really the right adjective, but in total dollars it probably is.  This new world order of extensions to players with less than 2 years of service has given way to lots of club risk.  Too many years for us for a player with one very good year.  SPRO 3 years $7,295,000.

Week of February 3

Free Agent Players
Paul Maholm signs 1 year $6,500,000 contract, plus incentives, with Dodgers.
SPRO Analysis -
 Los Angeles Dodgers pay market value for Maholm.  We're even good with additional years.  SPRO $6,317,000.

Bronson Arroyo signs 2 year $23,500,000 contract, including 3rd year option at $11m and $4.5m buyout, with Diamondbacks.
SPRO Analysis -
 Arizona pays market value for Arroyo.  Right on the mark with the two year deal and we're okay with a third.  SPRO  2 years $22,348,000; 3 years $34,112,000.

Francisco Rodriguez signs 1 year $3,250,000 contract with $550,000 incentives with Brewers.
SPRO Analysis -
 Milwaukee overpays for Rodriguez.  He's back with the Brewers, but this is probably a bit too much.  SPRO $2,314,000.

Mitchell Boggs signs 1 year $1,100,000 contract (free agent still with arbitration eligible MLST) with White Sox.
SPRO Analysis -
 Chicago White Sox get bargain in Boggs.  Boggs' contract fortunes took a significant hit when he wasn't tendered a contract by the Rockies after a poor stint there and in the minors.  But Boggs has been better than that before last year and has the chance to rebound.  SPRO $1,703,000.

Fernando Rodney signs 2 year $14,000,000 contract, plus $1m incentives, with Mariners.
SPRO Analysis -
 Seattle pays market value for Rodney.  You could argue that SPRO at 2 yrs. $18,234,000 is saying this is a bit of a bargain, but we're not so sure.  It may be, particularly in the Seattle park, but we're bothered by the downturn from spectacular to good.  If he's only good, then market value may even be too high.

Carlos Marmol signs 1 year $1,250,000 contract with Marlins.
SPRO Analysis -
 Miami gets bargain in Marmol.  SPRO $1,796,000.

Jerome Williams signs 1 year $2,100,000 contract with Astros.
SPRO Analysis -
 Houston pays market value for Williams.  SPRO $2.1m. Wouldn't have bothered with the incentives, but they're okay.

Jeff Baker signs 2 year $3,700,000 contract with Marlins.
SPRO Analysis -
 Miami pays market value for Baker.  One year too many for us, but the numbers for year one is right on the money.  They say he's getting $1.6m in 2014; SPRO says $1,659,000.

Player Resigns with Club
Coco Crisp signs 2 year extension for 2015-16 for $22,750,000, plus 2017 option at $13m w/$750,000 buyout, with A's.  Already due $7.5m in 2014.
SPRO Analysis -
 Oakland pays market value for Crisp.  SPRO 2 years in 2015/2016 for $19,970,000.  SPRO also says he should be paid $9,454,000 in 2014.

Arbitration Contracts
Freddie Freeman signs 8 year $135,000,000 contract with Braves.  This would buy out three years of arbitration and five years of free agency.
SPRO Analysis -
 Atlanta overpays for Freeman.  This is a tough call.  We think Freeman is an excellent player and worth near the $ suggested on a per year basis.  But the contract is too long, for us, for a 3 year MLST player in his first year of arbitration.  SPRO 5 years $56,019,000.  If we had to go 8 years, it would be in the $112m range.

Jason Heyward signs 2 year $13,300,000 contract with Braves.
SPRO Analysis -
 Atlanta pays market value for Heyward.  SPRO $12,751,000 for 2 years.

FREE AGENT CHANGES

There are no longer Type A, B, and C free agents to figure out who gives up what when signed a free agent.  Only those that have been offered the Qualifying Offer of $14.1m or not.  For those players signed by another club, the signing club will lose a pick from #11 to their second round pick.  The former club  gets a compensatory pick afer the first round in reverse order of the MLB standings.



Qualifying Offers Extended

Qualifying Offers of $14.1m for a one year contracts have been extended to 13 free agents.  If rejected and signed by another team, their former teams will receive an end of the first round draft pick with the signing team losing either a first or second round pick.  This year's players given the Qualifying Offers are: Carlos Beltran (SLN), Robinson Cano (NYA), Hiroki Kuroda (NYA), Curtis Granderson (NYA), Shin-Shoo Choo (CIN), Nelson Cruz (TEX), Stephen Drew (BOS), Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS), Mike Napoli (BOS), Ervin Santana (KCA), Brian McCann (ATL), Kendrys Morales (SEA), and Ubaldo Jimenez (CLE).
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More Hot Stove Items

November 2012
December 2012

January 2013
February 2013
March 2013
November 2013
December 2013

January 2014
February 2014

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Note: PEVA - Player Rating for Season or Career.  Age - Age reflects player age at the end of the calendar year.

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