• Stat Geek Baseball

Hot Stove Contract Comparisons

December 2014

  • SPRO contract comparisons from the contracts given out by your favorite baseball team for free agents, arbitration eligible and others.

  • Hot Stove
  • Week of December 29

    Free Agents

    Asdrubal Cabrera signs 1 year $8,000,000 contract with Rays.
    SPRO Analysis - Tampa Bay pays market value for Cabrera. SPRO $7,616,000.

    Re-signed with Club

    Cliff Pennington signs 1 year $3,275,000 contract with Diamondbacks.
    SPRO Analysis - Arizona overpays for Pennington. Whoa! Here's one key to an overpay. For four straight years Pennington has played in less games and you're paying a pro-rated starter's salary, based on last year's plate appearances of over $11m. Now does anyone think Pennington, if a starter, is worth $11m. He's not. SPRO $1,493,000.

    Week of December 22

    Free Agents

    A.J. Pierzynski signs 1 year $2,000,000 contract with Braves.
    SPRO Analysis - Atlanta gets bargain in Pierzynski. Sure, Pierzynski's offense is sliding, but if he's going to get starter's minutes, pending Gattis in leftfield, than this is a bargain for a starting catcher. SPRO $6,231,000.

    Jason Grilli signs 2 year $8,000,000 contract with Braves, with $3m option for 3rd year.
    SPRO Analysis - Atlanta pays market value for Grilli. SPRO 2 years $7,249,000.

    Tim Stauffer signs 1 year $2,200,000 contract with Twins.
    SPRO Analysis - Minnesota overpays for Stauffer. Been four years since Stauffer was stellar. SPRO says $1,476,000.

    Dave Ross signs 2 year $5,000,000 contract with Cubs.
    SPRO Analysis - Chicago Cubs overpay for Ross. Four straight years Ross has declined in 3 year rolling PEVA. We know he can catch, but ... he's just not worth this. SPRO $874,000.

    Re-signed with Club

    Delmon Young signs 1 year $2,250,000 contract with Orioles. SPRO Analysis - Baltimore gets bargain in Young. SPRO $3,065,000.

    Jordan Walden signs 2 year $6,600,000 contract, avoiding arbitration, with Cardinals. Contract includes $5.25m option for 3rd year.
    SPRO Analysis - St. Louis overpays for Walden. We know there's a 12% premium pushing salaries higher, but for a 2nd year arbitration player with good, but modest credentials, we think this is high. SPRO 1 year $1,399,000. We'd have waited till next year for a longer term deal if he pitched well.

    Week of December 15

    Free Agents

    Corey Hart signs 1 year $2,500,000 contract with Pirates, including $2.5m incentives.
    SPRO Analysis - Pittsburgh overpays for Hart. Salary's okay, but the incentives really weren't necessary. SPRO $2,025,000.

    Chris Medlen signs 2 year $8,500,000 contract with Royals, including $10m incentives and $10m option w/$1m buyout.
    SPRO Analysis - Kansas City gets bargain in Medlen. KC has minimized the risks on a pitcher who was injured last year, but really good the two years before. SPRO 2 years $11,960,000.

    Jake Peavy signs 2 year $24,000,000 contract plus incentives with Giants.
    SPRO Analysis - San Francisco overpays for Peavy. SPRO 2 years $18,476,000. He's a player with one very good year out of five or so, so this is a bit high considering that. Might do okay in SF park.

    Edison Volquez signs 2 year $20,000,000 contract, plus $10m mutual option for 3rd year w/$3m buyout, with Royals.
    SPRO Analysis - Kansas City pays market value for Volquez. SPRO 2 years $18,476,000 and okay with a third year at those numbers.

    Gavin Floyd signs 1 year $4,000,000 contract plus $6m incentives with Indians.
    SPRO Analysis - Cleveland overpays for Floyd. This borders on nuts. Floyd's 3 year rolling average of PEVA values has decreased for years, from 9.871 in 2009 to 9.850 to 7.525 to 6.612 to 3.311 to 2.185 after 2014. That's serious downturn and not for one year. SPRO $1,967,000.

    Brett Anderson signs 1 year $4,000,000 contract plus incentives with Dodgers.
    SPRO Analysis - Los Angeles Dodgers overpay for Anderson. It's been a good long while since Anderson was that type of money good, but he is still young, and at one time, was that good. SPRO $1,996,000.

    Michael Morse signs 2 year $8,000,000 contract plus incentives with Marlins.
    SPRO Analysis - Miami gets bargain in Morse. SPRO 2 years $11,370,000.

    Chris Capuano signs 1 year $5,000,000 contract with Yankees.
    SPRO Analysis - New York Yankees overpay for Capuano. SPRO $3,346,000.

    Brandon Morrow signs 1 year $2,500,000 contract plus $5m incentives (starter) or $1m incentives (reliever) with Padres. SPRO Analysis - San Diego pays market value for Morrow.
    Although they didn't really have to add in those incentives for us. SPRO $2,159,000.

    Alex Rios signs 1 year $11,000,000 contract with Royals.
    SPRO Analysis - Kansas City overpays for Rios. He's on the downside for a couple years. SPRO $8,200,000.

    Daniel Descalso signs 2 year $3,600,000 contract with Rockies and $500,000 incentives per year.
    SPRO Analysis - Colorado pays market value for Descalso. We would have gone year to year, but 2 is okay at these numbers. SPRO for year 1 $1,227,000.

    Re-signed with Club

    Phil Hughes signs 3 year $42,000,000 contract extension (2017-2019) with Twins. Full contract now 5 years $58,000,000.
    SPRO Analysis - Minnesota pays market value for Hughes. We wouldn't have gotten into that 5th year, but the numbers are right there. SPRO 4 years $45,949,000.

    Craig Breslow signs 1 year $2,000,000 contract with Red Sox.
    SPRO Analysis - Boston gets bargain in Breslow. Breslow had a very poor year in 2014 after two very good ones. They've bought low; smart move. SPRO $3,327,000.

    Sergio Romo signs 2 year $15,000,000 contract plus $1m incentives with Giants.
    SPRO Analysis - San Francisco pays market value for Romo. It's a little above, but not far, and there's concern that Romo's been on the down for two straight years. SPRO 2 years $13,156,000.

    David Hernandez signs 1 year $2,000,000 contract with Diamondbacks, avoiding arbitration.
    SPRO Analysis - Arizona pays market value for Hernandez. These are tough ones with a player who misses the whole year. SPRO $1,746,000.

    Week of December 8

    Free Agents

    Chase Headley signs 3 year $52,000,000 contract with Yankees.
    SPRO Analysis - New York Yankees pay market value for Headley. SPRO 3 years $58,153,000.

    Jason Motte signs 1 year $4,500,000 contract with Cubs.
    SPRO Analysis - Chicago Cubs get bargain in Motte. That seems odd to say for a pitcher who only pitched 25 innings over the last two years. SPRO 1 year $5,578,000.

    Jed Lowrie signs 3 year $23,000,000 contract with Astros.
    SPRO Analysis - Houston pays market value for Cabrera. SPRO 3 years $22,362,000.

    Melky Cabrera signs 3 year $42,000,000 contract with White Sox.
    SPRO Analysis - Chicago White Sox pay market value for Cabrera. We wouldn't have gone quite that high on a per year basis, but were okay with a 4 year deal, so this is fine. SPRO 3 year $37,100,000. 4 year $50,189,000.

    Kyuji Fujikawa signs 1 year $1,000,000 contract with Rangers, plus incentives.
    SPRO Analysis - Texas overpays for Fujikawa. I know, you have to pay this for a 34 year old, but geez, he's pitched 25 IP in two years since he's been here, so he's really not much better than a AAAA option. SPRO $521,000.

    Ervin Santana signs 4 year $55,000,000 contract with Twins, including $14m conditional option.
    SPRO Analysis - Minnesota overpays for Santana. SPRO 3 year $28,170,000.

    Justin Masterson signs 1 year $9,500,000 contract with Red Sox, plus incentives.
    SPRO Analysis - Boston overpays for Masterson. Slightly. SPRO $8,256,000.

    Kendrys Morales signs 2 year $17,000,000 contract with Royals, including $11m option w/$2m buyout. Also includes $750,000 incentives per year.
    SPRO Analysis - Kansas City overpays for Morales. Just why you'd give out a multi year contract at these numbers for a 0.218 hitter, we don't know. SPRO 2 years $11,335,000. Guess they really want those 8 HR and 42 RBI's (401 Plate Appearances).

    John Mayberry, Jr. signs 1 year $1,450,000 contract with Mets.
    SPRO Analysis - New York Mets pay market value for Mayberry. We know it's not a direct comparison since Mayberry is still in the ARB years of his career, but he hit 7 HR with 23 RBI in 168 Plate Appearances vs. Morales above. And he can play the field. This is not a play for giving John M. more money, but a tale as to why Morales shouldn't get it either. SPRO $1,742,000.

    Brandon McCarthy signs 4 year $48,000,000 contract with Dodgers.
    SPRO Analysis - Los Angeles Dodgers overpay for McCarthy. There's not one year of his career that McCarthy was worth $12m per, but they're paying him for four. And with the exception of last year, he doesn't give you innings. Not worth it. SPRO 2 year $11,565,000.

    Alberto Callaspo signs 1 year $3,000,000 contract with Braves, including $1m incentives.
    SPRO Analysis - Atlanta gets bargain in Callaspo. Actually right near the money with the incentives, but they've got a deal where they don't have to pay them unless good conditions are met. SPRO $4,403,000.

    Jon Lester signs 6 year $155,000,000 contract with Cubs, including vesting option at $15m for additional year.
    SPRO Analysis - Chicago Cubs overpay for Lester. Very good pitcher, not worth this type of money. SPRO 5 years $83,616,000.

    Luke Gregerson signs 3 year $18,500,000 contract with Astros, plus $2.5m incentives.
    SPRO Analysis - Houston pays market value for Gregerson. SPRO 3 years $18,868,000.

    David Robertson signs 4 year $46,000,000 contract with White Sox.
    SPRO Analysis - Chicago White Sox overpay for Robertson. Guess we're where the Yankees were, thinking that paying big time closer money for a one year closer is too large a risk. SPRO 3 year $20,471,000.

    Jason Hammel signs 2 year $18,000,000 contract with Cubs, including $10m option w/$2m buyout.
    SPRO Analysis - Chicago Cubs overpay for Hammel. He's back, but the cost is too high. Last year Hammel was fine, but not great, and the two years before that, he didn't give you lots of innings. It's like getting Kyle Kendrick but with less durability. SPRO 2 years $11,746,000.

    Re-signed with Club

    Bryce Harper signs 2 year $7,500,000 contract with Nationals.
    SPRO Analysis - Washington pays market value for Harper. SPRO 2 years $6,935,000.

    Francisco Liriano signs 3 year $39,000,000 contract with Pirates.
    SPRO Analysis - Pittsburgh overpays for Liriano. Liriano misses starts, forcing your AAA pitcher into 6+ starts per season. SPRO 3 years $21,945,000.

    Week of December 1

    Free Agents

    Andrew Miller signs 4 year $36,000,000 contract with Yankees.
    SPRO Analysis - New York Yankees overpay for Miller. Andrew's been very good and getting better each year over the last three years, but never in the closer's role. Big risk here to get away from David Robertson's demands, which were too high. But they may have overpaid here. SPRO 2 years $11,066,000.

    Nick Markakis signs 4 year $45,000,000 contract with Braves.
    SPRO Analysis - Atlanta pays market value for Markakis. Consistent player that should add what he's being paid, unlike their last big signs in the Upton brothers. SPRO 4 year $46,801,000.

    Jim Johnson signs 1 year $1,600,000 contract with Braves, plus $900,000 incentives.
    SPRO Analysis - Atlanta gets bargain in Johnson. Terrible year last year after a couple really good ones, but he's not going into Atlanta in the same role with Kimbrel there anyway. SPRO (old role) $6,718,000.

    Torii Hunter signs 1 year $10,500,000 contract with Twins.
    SPRO Analysis - Minnesota pays market value for Hunter. He's going home at the right price. SPRO $10,655,000.

    Nelson Cruz signs 4 year $57,000,000 contract with Mariners, Mariners, with $1m signing bonus.
    SPRO Analysis - Seattle pays market value for Cruz. Might be a lot tougher hitting those bombs in Seattle, but they've paid him what he's worth. SPRO 4 years $58,219,000.

    Re-signed with Club

    Colby Lewis signs 1 year $4,000,000 contract with Rangers.
    SPRO Analysis - Texas pays market value for Lewis. SPRO $3,672,000.

    Juston Smoak signs 1 year $1,000,000 contract with Blue Jays.
    SPRO Analysis - Toronto gets bargain in Smoak. SPRO $1,732,000.

    Esmil Rogers signs 1 year $750,000 contract with Yankees, avoiding arbitration. Deal includes $730,000 incentives.
    SPRO Analysis - New York Yankees pay market value for Rogers. SPRO, including incentives, $1,089,000.

    Ike Davis signs 1 year $3,800,000 contract with A's, avoiding arbitration.
    SPRO Analysis - Oakland gets bargain in Davis. Small bargain. SPRO $4,209,000.

    Fernando Rodriguez signs 1 year $635,000 contract with A's, avoiding arbitration.
    SPRO Analysis - Oakland pays market value for Rodriguez. SPRO 1 year $690,000.

    Luke Hochever signs 2 year $10,000,000 contract with Royals.
    SPRO Analysis - Kansas City overpays for Hochever. Hochever was hurt in 2014 and did not pitch and would be worth the money if he returns to health, but... SPRO 2 years $6,353,000.

    Darwin Barney signs 1 year $2,525,000 contract with Dodgers, avoiding arbitration.
    SPRO Analysis - Los Angeles Dodgers overpay for Barney. Not a good year in 2014, SPRO lower at $1,860,000.

    Brandon Kintzler signs 1 year $1,075,000 contract with Brewers, avoiding arbitration.
    SPRO Analysis - Milwaukee pays market value for Kintzler. SPRO $1,262,000.

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