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Hot Stove Contract Comparisons
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SPRO contract comparisons from the most recent contracts given out by your favorite baseball team for free agents, arbitration eligible and others. Find out what's going on in contract negotiations, what they've been paid, what they should have with the Stat Geek Baseball's SPRO Salary Projection system, and more.
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Hot Stove
Free Agents 2015-2016 Contract Projections
| NameLast | First | Team | Age | 2015 TPEVA | 3 YR RAVE | Career PEVA | SPRO Yr1 |
SPRO Yr2 |
CYrs | Contract T$ |
| Aardsma | David | ATL | 34 | 0.624 | 0.419 | 17.437 | $950,000 | $0 | 1 | $950,000 |
| Abad | Fernando | OAK | 30 | 0.854 | 2.563 | 2.996 | $1,732,000 | $0 | 1 | $1,732,000 |
| Albers | Matt | CHA | 32 | 3.048 | 2.081 | 19.024 | $2,343,000 | $0 | 1 | $2,343,000 |
| Anderson | Brett | LAN | 27 | 8.408 | 4.835 | 30.462 | $5,444,000 | $5,635,000 | 2 | $11,079,000 |
| Arias | Joaquin | SFN | 31 | 0.200 | 0.569 | 6.441 | $950,000 | $0 | 1 | $950,000 |
| Arroyo | Bronson | DNP | 38 | 0.000 | 2.637 | 128.800 | $1,930,000 | $0 | 1 | $1,930,000 |
| Avila | Alex | DET | 28 | 1.025 | 3.246 | 42.437 | $3,655,000 | $3,783,000 | 2 | $7,438,000 |
| Aviles | Mike | CLE | 34 | 1.551 | 2.285 | 25.006 | $2,187,000 | $0 | 1 | $2,187,000 |
| Badenhop | Burke | CIN | 32 | 1.940 | 2.687 | 18.328 | $3,026,000 | $0 | 1 | $3,026,000 |
| Bastardo | Antonio | PIT | 30 | 3.299 | 2.815 | 16.342 | $3,170,000 | $0 | 1 | $3,170,000 |
| Beachy | Brandon | LAN | 29 | 0.200 | 0.336 | 11.147 | $640,000 | $0 | 1 | $640,000 |
| Beckham | Gordon | CHA | 29 | 1.074 | 2.150 | 27.286 | $2,421,000 | $0 | 1 | $2,421,000 |
| Beimel | Joe | SEA | 38 | 0.701 | 0.986 | 22.349 | $1,125,000 | $0 | 1 | $1,125,000 |
| Belisle | Matt | SLN | 35 | 1.520 | 1.805 | 35.621 | $2,032,000 | $0 | 1 | $2,032,000 |
| Betancourt | Rafael | COL | 39 | 1.018 | 1.526 | 58.719 | $1,031,000 | $0 | 1 | $1,031,000 |
| Billingsley | Chad | PHI | 31 | 0.409 | 0.245 | 61.483 | $950,000 | $0 | 1 | $950,000 |
| Blanks | Kyle | TEX | 30 | 0.803 | 1.157 | 8.152 | $1,187,000 | $0 | 1 | $1,187,000 |
| Blanton | Joe | MULT | 34 | 4.119 | 2.920 | 72.408 | $3,288,000 | $0 | 1 | $3,288,000 |
| Blevins | Jerry | NYN | 32 | 0.200 | 1.178 | 17.230 | $1,347,000 | $0 | 1 | $1,347,000 |
| Bloomquist | Willie | SEA | 38 | 0.200 | 0.518 | 15.830 | $950,000 | $0 | 1 | $950,000 |
| Bonifacio | Emilio | CHA | 30 | 0.200 | 1.569 | 19.635 | $1,767,000 | $0 | 1 | $1,767,000 |
| Boyer | Blaine | MIN | 34 | 3.570 | 2.313 | 13.065 | $2,605,000 | $0 | 1 | $2,605,000 |
| Broxton | Jonathan | MULT | 31 | 1.493 | 2.255 | 53.526 | $2,539,000 | $0 | 1 | $2,539,000 |
| Buehrle | Mark | TOR | 36 | 11.197 | 10.868 | 204.499 | $12,317,000 | $12,748,000 | 3 | $38,259,000 |
| Byrd | Marlon | MULT | 38 | 7.859 | 10.124 | 83.073 | $10,245,000 | $10,604,000 | 3 | $31,824,000 |
| Cabrera | Asdrubal | TBA | 30 | 7.206 | 7.225 | 65.189 | $9,347,000 | $9,674,000 | 3 | $29,034,000 |
| Cahill | Trevor | MULT | 27 | 0.942 | 1.650 | 53.315 | $1,858,000 | $0 | 1 | $1,858,000 |
| Callaspo | Alberto | MULT | 32 | 0.928 | 2.346 | 42.422 | $2,378,000 | $0 | 1 | $2,378,000 |
| Capuano | Chris | NYA | 37 | 0.460 | 0.909 | 55.535 | $1,315,000 | $0 | 1 | $1,315,000 |
| Hernandez | Roberto | HOU | 35 | 1.014 | 2.511 | 57.516 | $2,828,000 | $0 | 1 | $2,828,000 |
| Cespedes | Yoenis | MULT | 30 | 19.635 | 15.531 | 55.466 | $17,489,000 | $18,101,000 | 5 | $93,092,000 |
| Chamberlain | Joba | MULT | 29 | 0.525 | 1.014 | 19.868 | $1,319,000 | $0 | 1 | $1,319,000 |
| Chen | Wei-Yin | BAL | 30 | 10.804 | 9.364 | 34.846 | $10,545,000 | $10,914,000 | 3 | $32,755,000 |
| Choate | Randy | SLN | 40 | 1.688 | 2.139 | 20.666 | $2,409,000 | $0 | 1 | $2,409,000 |
| Barmes | Clint | SDN | 36 | 1.248 | 1.142 | 32.692 | $1,474,000 | $0 | 1 | $1,474,000 |
| Clippard | Tyler | MULT | 30 | 4.481 | 5.728 | 42.352 | $6,741,000 | $6,977,000 | 3 | $20,939,000 |
| Colon | Bartolo | NYN | 41 | 8.627 | 10.087 | 159.878 | $11,359,000 | $11,757,000 | 2 | $23,116,000 |
| Corporan | Carlos | TEX | 31 | 0.261 | 0.689 | 4.294 | $687,000 | $0 | 1 | $687,000 |
| Cotts | Neal | MULT | 35 | 2.000 | 3.313 | 22.608 | $3,730,000 | $3,861,000 | 2 | $7,591,000 |
| Breslow | Craig | BOS | 35 | 1.216 | 2.115 | 29.918 | $2,382,000 | $0 | 1 | $2,382,000 |
| Cueto | Johnny | MULT | 29 | 12.740 | 16.534 | 113.461 | $22,058,000 | $22,830,000 | 6 | $142,699,000 |
| Davis | Chris | BAL | 29 | 19.378 | 16.672 | 67.633 | $18,775,000 | $19,432,000 | 6 | $121,462,000 |
| Davis | Rajai | TOR | 35 | 3.669 | 4.205 | 34.733 | $4,735,000 | $4,901,000 | 2 | $9,636,000 |
| Davis | Wade | DET | 30 | 13.842 | 11.555 | 48.553 | $13,013,000 | $13,468,000 | 4 | $54,678,000 |
| De Aza | Alejandro | MULT | 31 | 3.470 | 5.476 | 31.004 | $6,166,000 | $6,382,000 | 2 | $12,548,000 |
| De Fratus | Justin | PHI | 28 | 1.345 | 1.958 | 6.420 | $992,000 | $0 | 1 | $992,000 |
| DeJesus | David | MULT | 36 | 2.239 | 2.330 | 76.418 | $1,968,000 | $0 | 1 | $1,968,000 |
| Denorfia | Chris | CHN | 35 | 1.833 | 3.289 | 28.400 | $3,704,000 | $3,834,000 | 2 | $7,538,000 |
| Desmond | Ian | WAS | 29 | 7.933 | 9.587 | 56.311 | $11,553,000 | $11,957,000 | 3 | $35,885,000 |
| Detwiler | Ross | MULT | 29 | 0.934 | 1.004 | 15.398 | $1,382,000 | $0 | 1 | $1,382,000 |
| Brown | Domonic | PHI | 28 | 0.840 | 3.631 | 16.878 | $2,453,000 | $3,346,000 | 2 | $5,799,000 |
| Drew | Stephen | NYA | 32 | 3.047 | 3.207 | 52.807 | $3,611,000 | $3,737,000 | 2 | $7,348,000 |
| Duensing | Brian | MIN | 32 | 1.002 | 1.505 | 20.452 | $1,694,000 | $0 | 1 | $1,694,000 |
| Escobar | Alcides | KCA | 29 | 10.371 | 9.622 | 49.002 | $10,836,000 | $11,215,000 | 3 | $33,659,000 |
| Estrada | Marco | TOR | 32 | 14.013 | 8.577 | 28.396 | $9,659,000 | $9,997,000 | 3 | $30,003,000 |
| Fister | Doug | WAS | 31 | 1.569 | 7.412 | 62.110 | $10,541,000 | $10,910,000 | 3 | $32,743,000 |
| Fowler | Dexter | CHN | 29 | 11.885 | 9.088 | 48.154 | $10,235,000 | $10,593,000 | 3 | $31,792,000 |
| Francis | Jeff | TOR | 34 | 0.200 | 0.322 | 49.603 | $950,000 | $0 | 1 | $950,000 |
| Francoeur | Jeff | PHI | 31 | 2.979 | 1.625 | 70.350 | $1,830,000 | $0 | 1 | $1,830,000 |
| Frasor | Jason | MULT | 38 | 1.842 | 2.619 | 30.972 | $2,949,000 | $0 | 1 | $2,949,000 |
| Freese | David | LAA | 32 | 5.471 | 5.837 | 43.892 | $5,916,000 | $6,123,000 | 3 | $18,376,000 |
| Frieri | Ernesto | TBA | 30 | 0.200 | 1.144 | 21.948 | $1,180,000 | $0 | 1 | $1,180,000 |
| Gallardo | Yovani | TEX | 29 | 12.878 | 10.518 | 84.999 | $12,414,000 | $12,848,000 | 4 | $52,163,000 |
| Gee | Dillon | NYN | 29 | 0.427 | 3.011 | 21.547 | $2,713,000 | $3,468,000 | 2 | $6,181,000 |
| Gillaspie | Conor | MULT | 28 | 0.796 | 3.238 | 11.897 | $1,641,000 | $2,238,000 | 2 | $3,879,000 |
| Gomes | Jonny | MULT | 35 | 1.683 | 2.479 | 43.400 | $2,792,000 | $0 | 1 | $2,792,000 |
| Gordon | Alex | KCA | 31 | 6.900 | 10.646 | 90.843 | $13,918,000 | $14,405,000 | 4 | $58,482,000 |
| Gorzelanny | Tom | DET | 33 | 0.678 | 0.721 | 28.530 | $1,054,000 | $0 | 1 | $1,054,000 |
| Greinke | Zack | LAN | 32 | 41.725 | 24.231 | 177.612 | $25,000,000 | $25,573,000 | 6 | $158,855,000 |
| Guthrie | Jeremy | KCA | 36 | 3.493 | 6.758 | 74.659 | $7,611,000 | $7,877,000 | 3 | $23,641,000 |
| Gutierrez | Franklin | SEA | 31 | 3.530 | 2.278 | 35.705 | $2,565,000 | $0 | 1 | $2,565,000 |
| Happ | J.A. | MULT | 32 | 8.824 | 5.954 | 35.158 | $6,705,000 | $6,940,000 | 3 | $20,828,000 |
| Harang | Aaron | PHI | 37 | 4.629 | 6.138 | 107.910 | $6,912,000 | $7,154,000 | 3 | $21,470,000 |
| Hart | Corey | PIT | 33 | 0.200 | 0.231 | 64.460 | $950,000 | $0 | 1 | $950,000 |
| Hernandez | David | ARI | 30 | 0.799 | 0.747 | 18.734 | $1,192,000 | $0 | 1 | $1,192,000 |
| Herrera | Jonathan | CHN | 31 | 0.346 | 0.480 | 4.880 | $884,000 | $0 | 1 | $884,000 |
| Heyward | Jason | SLN | 26 | 10.778 | 10.437 | 59.704 | $12,198,000 | $12,625,000 | 4 | $51,256,000 |
| Hill | Rich | BOS | 35 | 4.409 | 2.424 | 23.963 | $2,729,000 | $0 | 1 | $2,729,000 |
| Kendrick | Howie | LAN | 32 | 5.066 | 7.592 | 57.442 | $8,603,000 | $8,904,000 | 3 | $26,723,000 |
| Hunter | Tommy | MULT | 29 | 1.586 | 3.137 | 23.160 | $3,532,000 | $3,656,000 | 2 | $7,188,000 |
| Iannetta | Chris | LAA | 32 | 2.831 | 5.085 | 41.085 | $5,726,000 | $5,926,000 | 2 | $11,652,000 |
| Ishikawa | Travis | MULT | 32 | 0.282 | 0.673 | 8.183 | $950,000 | $0 | 1 | $950,000 |
| Iwakuma | Hisashi | SEA | 34 | 4.538 | 9.420 | 39.190 | $11,033,000 | $11,419,000 | 3 | $34,271,000 |
| Izturis | Maicer | DNP | 35 | 0.000 | 0.451 | 24.694 | $950,000 | $0 | 1 | $950,000 |
| Jackson | Austin | MULT | 28 | 5.943 | 7.204 | 60.611 | $8,113,000 | $8,397,000 | 3 | $25,201,000 |
| Jackson | Edwin | MULT | 32 | 2.524 | 3.384 | 63.543 | $3,429,000 | $3,549,000 | 2 | $6,978,000 |
| Janssen | Casey | WAS | 33 | 1.101 | 2.979 | 38.802 | $3,020,000 | $0 | 1 | $3,020,000 |
| Baker | Jeff | MIA | 34 | 0.374 | 1.055 | 13.753 | $1,204,000 | $0 | 1 | $1,204,000 |
| Jimenez | Cesar | MULT | 31 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 3.514 | $537,000 | $0 | 1 | $537,000 |
| Jaso | John | TBA | 32 | 1.834 | 3.108 | 30.336 | $3,150,000 | $3,260,000 | 2 | $6,410,000 |
| Johnson | Jim | MULT | 32 | 1.884 | 3.067 | 44.141 | $3,454,000 | $3,579,000 | 2 | $7,033,000 |
| Johnson | Josh | DNP | 31 | 0.000 | 0.179 | 70.617 | $950,000 | $0 | 1 | $950,000 |
| Johnson | Kelly | MULT | 33 | 2.986 | 2.618 | 53.538 | $2,949,000 | $0 | 1 | $2,949,000 |
| Jones | Garrett | NYA | 34 | 0.526 | 2.637 | 38.724 | $2,524,000 | $0 | 1 | $2,524,000 |
| Joyce | Matthew | LAA | 31 | 0.771 | 3.677 | 37.704 | $4,140,000 | $4,285,000 | 2 | $8,425,000 |
| Kazmir | Scott | MULT | 31 | 9.398 | 9.039 | 78.058 | $10,179,000 | $10,535,000 | 3 | $31,618,000 |
| Kelley | Shawn | SDN | 31 | 3.236 | 2.210 | 9.313 | $2,488,000 | $0 | 1 | $2,488,000 |
| Kendrick | Kyle | COL | 31 | 3.855 | 5.194 | 43.838 | $6,261,000 | $6,480,000 | 2 | $12,741,000 |
| Kennedy | Ian | SDN | 31 | 5.608 | 6.900 | 70.824 | $9,427,000 | $9,757,000 | 3 | $29,282,000 |
| Lackey | John | SLN | 36 | 17.053 | 13.676 | 148.053 | $15,401,000 | $15,940,000 | 3 | $47,839,000 |
| Latos | Mat | MULT | 28 | 1.963 | 4.546 | 62.250 | $5,119,000 | $5,298,000 | 2 | $10,417,000 |
| Leake | Mike | MULT | 28 | 8.833 | 9.740 | 46.190 | $10,968,000 | $11,352,000 | 3 | $34,069,000 |
| Lee | Cliff | PHI | 36 | 0.000 | 5.152 | 201.371 | $4,352,000 | $4,504,000 | 2 | $8,856,000 |
| Lewis | Colby | TEX | 36 | 10.203 | 6.670 | 49.466 | $7,512,000 | $7,775,000 | 3 | $23,334,000 |
| Lincecum | Tim | SFN | 31 | 1.354 | 3.417 | 132.038 | $3,464,000 | $3,585,000 | 2 | $7,049,000 |
| Lohse | Kyle | MIL | 37 | 2.865 | 6.959 | 117.246 | $5,486,000 | $5,678,000 | 3 | $17,041,000 |
| Lowe | Mark | MULT | 32 | 4.458 | 2.329 | 12.507 | $2,623,000 | $0 | 1 | $2,623,000 |
More Free Agents - M-Z
Note: Age - Age at End of 2015. TPEVA - Total PEVA for Year. 3Yr RAVE - Rolling Ave of Last Three PEVA Yearly values.
- Hot Stove League
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The Numbers Above
Bound to Get More Than They Should
Jason Heyward is the hot position player sign for this year with most people projecting he'll be signing a contract worth between $20-$25 million per year for up to seven seasons. Hold on there! Yes, it's unusual in this day for players of 26 to be a free agent with lots of good years to come. But Jason Heyward is not Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, or Albert Pujols. He's more Chase Utley. Check what Utley was paid in his career. Heyward, like Utley, is pretty darn good and will help you win, but not worth nearly those type of dollars. Somebody will pay him that, but he's just not gonna end up being worth it. Can we remember Jose Reyes or Hanley Ramirez and the $ they got? Who thinks they were good contracts now.
Won't Get That
Chase Utley will not get a three year deal and it's not necessarily because most experts think his best days are behind him, which they likely are. His 3 Year RAVE is fine for getting that length and $, but it's the way the 2014 number was skewed toward the first half of that season that will bite. Utley will likely sign a deal with lots of playing time incentives for one year, with perhaps a second year option. Judgement must be used in any Sabermetric type system and logic prevail. We hope we're wrong with Chase; he's one of our favorite players. We hope he rebounds to the level of 2014 (first half) and proves everybody wrong.
What the Numbers Above Mean
What They Should Get is a better explanation of the numbers above than what many projections give out. It's not what they will get. The SPRO system has been developed to be accurate to what the numbers project them to be worth in the long run, not what some or many General Managers are willing to pay today. It relies heavily on past performance, plus durability, and does not account for a change of use in the future, so there are times when the SPRO numbers will seem high, because the player going forward is no longer going to be a starter, for example. How accurate is it? We'll see. But in the past, you would not have signed Ryan Howard, Jose Reyes, or Hanley Ramirez to those numbers and be stuck with contracts well above their pay grade. Sometimes the best idea is not to sign someone, even when the fan base is clamoring for more.
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More About Our Salary Projections
Stat Geek Baseball and Salary Projections
The salary projections from Stat Geek Baseball and Baseball Evaluation are the result of over 5,000 hours of research into how baseball statistics and our PEVA player ratings correlate to payroll, and the results in the Salary Projection model are meant to mirror how baseball pays its players.
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