Stat Geek Baseball, the Best Ever Book

Stat Geek Baseball,
the Best Ever Book
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Best Ever Book
Digital Edition 2012
Publication Date: 11/5/2012

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Publication Date: 2/9/2012
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Baseball Evaluation
and Salary Projections

The salary projections from baseballevaluation.com are the result of over 5,000 hours of research into how baseball statistics and our PEVA player ratings correlate to payroll, and the results in the Salary Projection model are meant to mirror how baseball pays its players.


PEVA Player
Rating BOXSCORE


 32.000 - Fantastic
(MVP/Cy Young Award Canddiate)
20.000 - Great (All League)
15.000 - Very Good (All Star Caliber)
10.000 - Good (Plus Starter)
3.500 - Average Player




FREE AGENT CHANGES

There are no longer Type A, B, and C free agents to figure out who gives up what when signed a free agent.  Only those that have been offered the Qualifying Offer of $13.3m or not.  For those players signed by another club, the signing club will lose a pick from #11 to their second round pick.  The former club  gets a compensatory pick afer the first round in reverse order of the MLB standings.
Stat Geek Baseball


Hot Stove League - November 2012

It's that time of year.  The season and World Series are done and your teams area looking for way to make them better and compete for the playoffs next year.  And there are questions aplenty.  What free agents will be offered the new $13.3m qualifying offer that could garner them compensatory draft picks if they leave?  Who is arbitration eligible and are you willing to go to arbitration with that player or cut him free?  What are your favorite players worth anyway?  Below the staff at baseballevaluation.com and Stat Geek Baseball will attempt to keep you up to date with the current transactions, as well as give our opnion, and the Stat Geek Baseball Salary Projection's opinion of what dollars and cents should have been paid to the signed player.  Hope the Hot Stove of your favorite team works out well.  Happy stoving!

The Hot Stove League
Free Agents, Options, and Player Signings

Hot Stove - November 2012
Hot Stove - December 2012
Recent Hot Stove

Find out what's going on in contract negotiations, what they've been paid, what they should have with the Stat Geek Baseball's SPRO Salary Projection system, and more.

Week of November 26, 2012


Free Agent Signings
Russell Martin signs 2 year $17m contract with Pirates.
SPRO Analysis -
Pittsburgh overpays for Martin.  Apparently teams don't value trends, but this one is hard to miss.  For every year since 2007, Martin's batting average has gone down.  Yes, five straight years, from 0.293 to 0.280 to 0.250 to 0.248 to 0.237 to 0.211.  He's still valuable, because he's a catcher, but not at this rate per year.  SPRO 3 years $20,760,000.


B.J. Upton signs 5 year $75.25m contract, pending physical, with Braves.
SPRO Analysis -
Atlanta overpays for Upton.  Not surprised at all that he signed for more than the 
SPRO projection of 4 years and $46,772,000, but we'll stick with what we noted.  Not worth it to us, particularly when a 1st round draft pick goes along for the ride.  This isn't a huge overpay, but considering the pick going away, think the Braves would have been better off keeping Bourn.

Ryan Madson signs 1 year $3.5m contract plus $3.5m incentives with Angels.
SPRO Analysis -
Los Angeles of Anaheim pays market value for Madson.  Smart deal with a wait and see approach.  SPRO of $4,657,000 for one year.


Scott Feldman
signs 1 year $6m contract with Cubs, incliuding $1m in iincentives.
SPRO Analysis -
Chicago overpays for Feldman.  He's a man with one very good year, but that was back in 2009.  Since then, outside the good postseason last year, nothing to write home about since his PEVA rating sits just above 2 every year except 2009.  SPRO of $4,373,000.

Players Re-sign With Club
David Wright signs 8 year $138m contract with Mets, extending existing 1 year $16m contract.
SPRO Analysis -
New York Mets get bargain in Wright.  This is the best position player in Met history and with this signing, they've pretty much signed him for his entire career and it's a great sign.  Wright gave them a hometown discount.  SPRO projects a bit shorter contract, but at $19.78m per, not $17.25m.  SPRO 6 years $118,661,000.

Mariano Rivera signs 1 year $10m with incentives with Yankees..
SPRO Analysis -
New York Yankees overpay for RIvera.  That's hard to say, with how spectacular this relief pitcher has been.  Best ever by far.  SPRO says considering his age, more applicable at $7,259,000.

Chris Getz signs 1 year $1.95m contract with $105,000 incentives, avoiding salary arbitration, with Royals..
SPRO Analysis -
Kansas City overpays for Getz.  A normal raise for a player in his second year of eligibility, however, Getz regressed last year, and SPRO says $797,000 is more applicable.


Pat Neshek signs 1 year $875,000 contract with A's, avoiding arbitration.  Contract includes $75,000 in incentives..
SPRO Analysis -
Oakland overpays for Neshek.  SPRO says $615,000, which isn't too far off, but it's significant in this regard.  Neshek is a pitcher who has logged less than 70 IP total since 2008.  Yes, in 5 years, less than 70 IP.  I know he had an ERA of 1.37 in 2012, which is great, but again, in 19.7 IP.  He gives up 2 ER in 1 IP and his ERA blossoms.  Hey, they're giving him slightly more because of that ERA, but if you think Neshek will do that again, it's doubtful to us.


Jonathan Broxton signs 3 year $21m contract with Reds, incliuding club option for $9m with $1m buyout.
SPRO Analysis -
Cincinnati pays market value for Broxton.  SPRO says 2 years and $12,613,000.  We're a little concerned with the third year, but overall, it's a market based deal for Broxton, particularly if he can assume the closer's role again.


Andy Pettite
signs 1 year $12m contract with Yankees.
SPRO Analysis
- New York overpays for Pettite.  Don't know why clubs do this, although, with the Yankees, it's never really about the money no matter how much they contend they're trying to go below the luxury tax threshhold some day.  Pettite had a very nice partial year last year, but that's what it was, a partial year.  At 40, and with four straight years (not counting 2011) of IP on the decline, SPRO suggests a projected salary of $3,015,000 for next year and would be okay with a 2nd year at about the same price.  Is he worth more than that if he pitches a full season? Yes.  But, even though last year the IP were less from choice, will that trend continue when he tries to pitch more?


Evan Longoria signs extension with Rays.  Extension covers years after current 4 year $36m contract, starting in 2017 through 2022 (6 years) for $100 million.  Club option for 2023.
SPRO Analysis - Tampa Bay overpays for Longoria.  This is not so much an overpay as an unnecessary and risky move to extend right now.  That said, we love it when players decide to sign long term with the team they came up with and we really like Evan.  In the end, this may be smart and frugal.  But, and it's not a small but, Longoria has had two declining years in a row, and as of today, isn't worth the risk beyond the four current years, which SPRO pegs at worth $48,273,000.  They had four more seasons to test whether Longoria was going to recover to the player he was two years ago, which we think he will.  But we would have waited.

Todd Redmond re-signs with Reds.  Player after first year in majors signs for Major League Minimum of $490,000.
SPRO Analysis - Cincinnati pays market value for Redmond.  SPRO agrees, $490,000.

Eli Whiteside re-signs extension with Yankees for $625,000, avoiding salary arbitration.
SPRO Analysis - New York Yankees pay market value for Whiteside.  SPRO valued him at $505,000, but this is in line.  We're not a fan of paying much above minimum for players on the downside still in their arbitration years, but it's normal for a catcher to get a slight boost.


Week of November 19, 2012

Free Agents Signed
Jonny Gomes signs 2 year $10m contract with Red Sox.
SPRO Analysis - Boston pays market value for Gomes.  Not sure where or how well he'll play the outfield after being mostly a DH, but the $ are right on the money with an SPRO projection of 2 years $10,081,000.

Gerald Laird
signs 2 year $3m contract with Braves with $750,00 incentives..

SPRO Analysis - Atlanta pays market value for Laird.  We woudn't have gone two years, but the $ seem all right, particularly for a veteran catcher who seems to get a bit more, even when their production is marginal. SPRO projection 1 year at $1,214,000.

Players Resign With Club
DeWayne Wise re-signs with White Sox for $700,000, avoiding arbitration.
SPRO Analysis - Chicago White Sox get bargain in Wise.  Small bargain, but the arbitration eligible player not far from free agency had an SPRO projection of $1,132,000.

Hideki Kuroda
resigns with Yankees for $15m plus incentives on 1 year deal.
SPRO Analysis - New York Yankees pay market value for Kuroda.  He only wanted one year due to a desire to finish his career in Japan, and with an SPRO projection for a one year contract at $15,580,000, this contract is right on the mark.

Joel Peralta and Rays come to terms on 2 years and $6 miillion with club option of $2.5 in 2015, and two additional club options in 2016-17.
SPRO Analysis - Tampa Bay gets bargain in Peralta.  It's slight, with an SPRO contract projection of $7.9m for 2 years, but it is a bargain.

Kyle Blanks and Padres avoid arbitration and sign for $605,000.
SPRO Analysis - San Diego pays market value for Blanks.  We woudln't go that high, but an SPRO of $501,000 isn't too far off.  Blanks is barely above a AAAA player at this point until he proves otherwise, but starts the year at only 26 years old, so there's time.  Padres being slightly generous that it pays off in future years.

Shawn Camp and Cubs agree on 1 year $1.35m contract with $250,000 incentives.
SPRO Analysis - Chicago Cubs gets bargain for Camp.  Finally, the Cubs sign a good, albeit, minor deal.  Camp isn't great, but has been okay, and the SPRO contract of $2,453,000 would represent market value for us.

Jeremy Guthrie and Royals agree on 3 year $15m contract.
SPRO Analysis - Kansas City overpays for Guthrie.  Why does the SPRO systems say 3 years and $19.859m?  Well, it's because Guthrie is trending down, in PEVA value from 11 to 6.5 to 5, but up in ERA, from 3.83 to 4.33 to 4.76.  Yes, he pitched part of 2012 in Colorado under the bizarre,  starters can't go far, scenario, so that might have an impact.  We'll see, but slightly too high for our taste.

Teepossible.com @ Zazzle

Week of November 12, 2012

Free Agents Signed
Juan Pierre signs 1 year $1.6 million contract with Marlins.
SPRO Analysis - Miami gets bargain in Pierre.  Yeh, we know, he's not the player he was, but, the numbers he put up for Philadelphia in 2012 tells you he's worth more than this.  Problem is his combination of poor defense and age along with speed and OBP doesn't easily relate to a full-time starter or even platoon player, unless you have injuries, or in the case of Florida, a fire sale.  If he ends up laying the same type role this year as in Philly last and the two years prior, he's worth an SPRO of $6.237m.  Problem is, when figuring out value, what's his use gonna be.

Melky Cabrera
signs 2 year $16 million contract with Blue Jays.

SPRO Analysis - Toronto pays market value for Cabrera.  Well, who really knows if this is market value, an overpay, or bargain?  Yes, it's a bargain if he's anywhere near the player he showed last year in the PED season, worth an SPRO contract of 5 years and $68.8m just from a stat point of view for the part of the season played.  He was worth 2 years and $20,783,000 prior to 2012, so is that a better yardstick?  Do we know what his PED status was then?  So many unknowns.  I guess we'll have to see how this contract pans out to make a fair assessment.

Dionar Navarro signs 1 year $1.75m contract with Cubs w/$250,000 incentives.
SPRO Analysis - Chicago overpays for Navarro.  There must be something in the water in Chicago that turns GMs south.  Navarro is barely a player worth having on your team, but to pay him over a basic minimum salary for a vet, say the $850,000 that SPRO suggests, is perplexing at best.  I know, I know, he batted 0.290 this past year after two years below Mendoza.  Let's be real.  It was in 69 at bats.  Where were the other offers coming from in this territory, or why did you have to have him versus some rookie as a backup?  More questions than answers.

Torii Hunter signs 2 year $26 million contract with Tigers.
SPRO Analysis - Detroit pays market value for Torii Hunter.  It's funny, because we always thought his last contract was out of line for his ability, even though there's plenty of that on display.  Now at 37 years old, is he worth a two year contract?  We say yes; last season was his best and he's been a remarkably durable player for his career.  We'd even go three years.  SPRO 3 years, $43,754,000.

Scott Baker
signs 1 year $5 million contract, with incentives, with Cubs.

SPRO Analysis - Chicago Cubs overpay for Baker.  It's the same old Cubs, even now with Theo in charge.  Well, at least that's what it seems. It's not just that Baker didn't pitch last year, it's more in the fact that he has been on a downward slide for four years running.  He hasn't been a pitcher worth that money since 2010, and barely that then.  PEVA rating slide from 11.183 in 2009 to 5.293 to 4.747 to 0.000.  Even for the mathmatically challenged, that's a downward progression.  SPRO says pitch a year at $2,123,000 and we'll talk about bigger dollars later.

Players Resign With Club
Jeremy Affeldt and Giants come to terms on 3 years and $18 miillion.
SPRO Analysis - San Francisco overpays for Affeldt.  Yes, we know they've won the World Series twice with Jeremy onboard as a setup guy, and the market price for those men has been rising.  But this, to us, is too much for a guy with his peripherals.  A WHIP9 of 11.367 with half of his games in a pitcher's park.  And we're slightly uncomfortable with that third year.  SPRO projection of 2 years and $6,583,000.


Week of November 5, 2012


Free Agents Signed
Maicer Izturis signs 3 year $10 million contract with Blue Jays.
SPRO Analysis - Toronto overpays for Izturis.  Now 32 years old and with the start of a declining pattern starting to emerge, SPRO projects only a 1 year contract at $2,212,000.  Izturis may have been worth this deal last year, but we just don't see it now.  He has a history of ping pong years, however, so his next may warrant the cost, but overall we think it's too high for his talents, unless his role in Toronto significantly expands.

David Ross signs 2 year $6.2 million contract with Red Sox.
SPRO Analysis - Boston overpays for Ross.  Not a contract that will hurt the new Sox, but one that is a little perplexing.  A mid-30's catcher that might get an expanded role.  In his former backup role, SPRO says he's worth $2.237m for 1 year.

Players Resign With Club
Kevin Frandsen and Phillies avoid 1st Year Arbitration and come to contract terms of a 1 year salary of $850,000 with $350,000 incentives.
SPRO Analysis - Philadelphia pays market value for Frandsen.  SPRO projects $790,000 for the possible starter/utilityman.

Free Agent Eligible Players Rejecting $13.3m Qualifying Offer
Michael Bourn rejects offer from Braves.
SPRO Analysis - We understand why he did it and believe it's a good idea for Bourn.  He'll get a deal above that for 3-5 years.  However, Bourn is very good, not great, and SPRO projects he's worth a four year deal for $45.883 million.  He'll get higher offers than that, but will they be worth it.
Josh Hamilton rejects offer from Rangers.
SPRO Analysis - Good idea for Hamilton and we do think he's worth more than that per year.  How much and how many years is the problem here, with off the field circumstances weighing heavily in the decision, and on the field injury concerns playing a factor, too.  SPRO says 6 years, $102.624.  Personally, we think a shorter term is advisable and higher dollars per year.
Hiroki Kuroda rejects offer from Yankees.
SPRO Analysis - Yes, good idea for Kuroda, who most folks wouldn't think had had the track record of the last three years.  The problem is, he's 37.  Not how good he is.  SPRO 3 years, $48,394,000.  Not sure he'll get those three, think two years and an option.
Adam LaRoche rejects offer from Nationals.
SPRO Analysis - We can see merits in both positions, but LaRoche wants to strike while the iron is hot.  He just had a career year, time to get a career contract.  But we'd be wary if we were another club.  Somebody's bound to overpay the SPRO projection of 3 years, $26,560,000.
Kyle Lohse rejects offer from Cardinals.
SPRO Analysis - They'll let him walk, it's what they do, and might be a good idea.  SPRO states 4 years, $63,718,000.  Who would have thought Lohse would ever be worth that?
Rafael Soriano rejects offer from Yankees.
SPRO Analysis - Nothing like getting complicated by the Rivera situation. Would he be an 8th or 9th inning guy there.  Our thought is they'll pay Soriano as if he'd be the closer, even if he isn't.  But that really mixes the value up, just as 2011 did.  SPRO just looks at real numbers; it says 3 years, $25.438m as that hybrid pitcher.  But he'll get more than that.
Nick Swisher rejects offer from Yankees.
SPRO Analysis - The measure of the consistently good player, but he is getting older.  Hasn't shown up on the stat line yet, but a wary moment for suitors.  SPRO says 4 years, $50.364m.
B.J. Upton rejects offer from Rays.
SPRO Analysis - At one time, it was believed Upton wanted a contract for five years and $14m per.  Not worth that to us with his strikeouts, OBP, and average, although his talent is what always made Upton intriguing.  There's a good deal of centerfielders on the market, but also a big market for them.  SPRO says 4 years $46,772,000.  He'll sign for more.


Week of October 29, 2012

Players Resign With Club
Jake Peavy ups again with the White Sox for 2 years and $29 milliion with a vesting option for 2014 at $15 million.
SPRO Analysis - Chicago pays too much for Peavy.  Boy, that's a lot for Peavy, who when good deserves it, but has not been healthy enough for us to expend $15 million dollars per year on.  SPRO says they'd be okay with going longer term, for four years, but at less guaranteed dollars per, think $41,783,000 for 4, or 2 years at $20,173,000.

Brandon League resigns with the Dodgers for 3 years and $22.5m.
SPRO Analysis - LA pays market value for League.  They intend to use him as a closer, which he has not always been, so in that way, the numbers add up.  SPRO doesn't assume that, so thinks 3 years and $17.256 million, based on past performance.

David Ortiz gets 2 years and $26 milliion with Boston.
SPRO Analysis - Red Sox pay market value for Ortiz.  Slightly higher than the 2 year, $23.98 million contract SPRO suggests, but then again, SPRO was okay with 3 years and $36.603m.

Bartolo Colon re-signs with Oakland for $3m plus incentives.
SPRO Analysis - A's get bargain in Colon.  SPRO suggested $4,229,000, which included incentives, so it's not that far off, but a slight bargain if he performs as he did this past year.

Oliver Perez re-signs with Seattle for $1.5m plus $600,000 in incentives.
SPRO Analysis - Mariners pay market value for Perez.  SPRO $1.315m.


Hiroshi Iwakuma re-signs with Seattle for 2 years, $14m, and 3rd year option.
SPRO Analysis - Mariners overpay for Iwakuma.  Yes, we know he had a good second half on one season, but the Japanese League veteran has not shown enough for us to go that high.  SPRO suggested $1,841,000, and proving it for another season before awarding a contract like that.


Player Options Picked Up
Gavin Floyd
has $9.5m option picked up by White Sox; SPRO says he's worth $5,972,000.  Four straight years of declining PEVA.  No bargain.
Jhonny Peralta has $6m option picked up by Tigers; SPRO says he's worth $8,647,000.  Good idea.
Octavio Dotel has $3.5m option picked up by Tigers; SPRO says he's worth $3,497,000.  Market value.
Tim Hudson has $9m option picked up by Braves; SPRO says he's worth $14,323,000.  Good idea.
Brian McCann has $12m option picked up by Braves; SPRO says he's worth $11,182,000.  Market value.  Interesting fact, McCann has now declined for 2 straight years.
Paul Maholm has $6.5m option picked up by Braves; SPRO says he's worth $7,553,000.  Good idea.
Pedro Alvarez has $700,000 option picked up by Pirates; SPRO says he's worth $540,000.  Bit high, but good idea not to quibble.

Player Options Declined
Brett Myers has $10m option declined by White Sox w/3m buyout; SPRO value $6,963,000.  Good idea.
Kevin Youkalis has $13m option declined by White Sox w/$1m buyout; SPRO value $6,405,000.  Good idea.
Kevin Youkalis has $13m option declined by White Sox w/$1m buyout; SPRO value $6,405,000.  Good idea.
Scott Feldman has $9.25m option declined by Rangers; SPRO value $4,373,000.  Good idea.
Yoshinori Tateyama has $1.2m option declined by Rangers; SPRO value $614,000.  Good idea.
Chris Snyder has $4m option declined by Houston; SPRO value $1,501,000.  Good idea.
Dan Haren has $14.4m option declined by Rangers, getting $3.5m buyou; SPRO value $12,110,000.  Good idea.
Rod Barajas has $3.5m option declined by Pirates; SPRO value $3,499,000.  It's market value, but only if the Pirates wanted to continue to use him like he'd been used the last three years.  They probably decided they weren't going to.
Ryan Madson has $11m option declined by Reds, got $2.5m buyout; SPRO value $4,647,000.  Good idea.  Madson will be an interesting case this winter, wanting a closer's job, but the injury might prevent that, or at least keep the dollars below what he really wants.
Ryan Ludwick declines player option for $5m and gets $500,000 buyout.  Ludwick is looking for a longer contract and SPRO values that at 3 years and $23,197,000.  Good idea.

Players Granted Free Agency
Dallas Braden made free agent by A's; SPRO says worth $1,709,000 for 1 year on open market.
Joey Devine made free agent by A's; SPRO says worth $501,000 for 1 year on open market.

Qualifying Offers Extended

Qualifying Offers Given to Nine Potential Free Agents

Nine players have been given qualifying offers of $13.3 million dollars by their team, making their current team eligible to recieve free agent compensation with a pick after the 1st round and loss of 1st or 2nd rounder to the signing team.
  • Michael Bourn, Atlanta
  • Josh Hamilton, Texas
  • Adam LaRoche, Washington
  • Kyle Lohse, St. Louis
  • Hiroki Kuroda, New York Yankees
  • Nick Swisher, New York Yankees
  • Rafael Soriano, New York Yankees
  • David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox
  • B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay


All nine players, except David Ortiz who signed back with Boston last week, have rejected the qualifying offers and are on the free agent market.  If signed by another team, that team will lose its first or second round pick with the former club receiving a pick after the first round.




 
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Note: PEVA - Player Rating for Season or Career.  Age - Age reflects player age at the end of the calendar year.

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