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Stat Geek Baseball, the Best Ever Book

Stat Geek Baseball,
the Best Ever Book
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Best Ever Book
Digital Edition 2012
Publication Date: 11/5/2012

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THE 2012
POSTSEASON

The Best Yankee!
The Best Red Sox!
The Best of Every Team!

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Baseball Evaluation
and Salary Projections

The salary projections from baseballevaluation.com are the result of over 5,000 hours of research into how baseball statistics and our PEVA player ratings correlate to payroll, and the results in the Salary Projection model are meant to mirror how baseball pays its players.


PEVA Player
Rating BOXSCORE


 32.000 - Fantastic
(MVP/Cy Young Award Canddiate)
20.000 - Great (All League)
15.000 - Very Good (All Star Caliber)
10.000 - Good (Plus Starter)
3.500 - Average Player




FREE AGENT CHANGES

There are no longer Type A, B, and C free agents to figure out who gives up what when signed a free agent.  Only those that have been offered the Qualifying Offer of $13.3m or not.  For those players signed by another club, the signing club will lose a pick from #11 to their second round pick.  The former club  gets a compensatory pick afer the first round in reverse order of the MLB standings.
Stat Geek Baseball


Hot Stove League 2012

It's that time of year.  The season and World Series are done and your teams area looking for way to make them better and compete for the playoffs next year.  And there are questions aplenty.  What free agents will be offered the new $13.3m qualifying offer that could garner them compensatory draft picks if they leave?  Who is arbitration eligible and are you willing to go to arbitration with that player or cut him free?  What are your favorite players worth anyway?  Below the staff at baseballevaluation.com and Stat Geek Baseball will attempt to keep you up to date with the current transactions, as well as give our opnion, and the Stat Geek Baseball Salary Projection's opinion of what dollars and cents should have been paid to the signed player.  Hope the Hot Stove of your favorite team works out well.  Happy stoving!

The Hot Stove League
Free Agents, Options, and Player Signings

Find out what's going on in contract negotiations, what they've been paid, what they should have with the Stat Geek Baseball's SPRO Salary Projection system, and more.

Week of January 28, 2013


Free Agent Players
Manny Parra signs 1 year contract for $1m, plus $400,000 incentives, with Reds.
SPRO Analysis -
Cincinnati pays market value for Parra.  SPRO $982,000.

Travis Hafner
signs 1 year contract for $2m, plus $2m incentives, with Yankees.
SPRO Analysis -
New York gets bargain in Hafner.  Certainly trending down the last few years due to injuries, etc., but if he regains health, could be a good deal for New York, considering the extra money that would make it a market value deal are tied to incentives and not up front.  SPRO $3,409,000.

Kelly Shoppach signs 1 year contract for $1.5m plus $500,000 incentives with Mariners.
SPRO Analysis -
Seattle pays market value for Shoppach.  SPRO $1,566,000.

Alex Gonzalez signs 1 year contract for $1.5m plus $1m incentives with Brewers.
SPRO Analysis -
Milwaukee gets bargain in Durbin.  Only 89 AB last year for Gonzalez hurt his value, but not too long ago he was very productive.  Bargains starting to be the season as spring training approaches.  SPRO $3,812,000.

Ronny Cedeno signs 1 year contract for $1.15m plus $850,000 incentives with Cardinals.
SPRO Analysis -
St. Louis gets bargain in Cedeno.  SPRO $2,940,000.

Chad Durbin signs 1 year contract for $1.1m plus $350,000 incentives with 2nd year option with Phillies.
SPRO Analysis -
Philadelphia gets bargain in Durbin.  SPRO $2,459,000.

Players Re-Sign With Club

Avoiding Arbitration
Martin Prado signs 4 year contract for $40m, avoiding arbitration, with Diamondbacks.
SPRO Analysis -
Arizona gets bargain in Prado.  One year longer than we'd suggest, but pretty much right on the money.  Prado's been a very good player for Atlanta with lots of versatility.  Good sign.  SPRO 3 years $28,023,000.

Craig Breslow signs 2 year contract for $6.150,000, avoiding arbitration, with Red Sox. Deal also includes 3rd year option with $100,000 buyout.
SPRO Analysis -
Boston gets bargain in Breslow.  Two year deal is right on the mark for the pitcher who was very good in 2012 and pretty darn good in the year's before, except for 2011.  SPRO 2 years $7,567,000.

Teepossible.com @ Zazzle

Week of January 21, 2013

Free Agent Players
Matt Lindstrom signs 1 year contract for $2.3m with $4m option and $500,000 buyout with White Sox.  Deal also includes $2.25m incentives.
SPRO Analysis -
Chicago pays market value for Lindstrom.  SPRO $2,598,000 for one year; $5,959,000 for 2 years.

Shawn Marcum signs 1 year contract for $4m w/$2m incentives with Mets.
SPRO Analysis -
New York gets bargain in Marcum.  SPRO $8,055,000, which includes incentives.

Jair Jurrjens signs 1 year contract for $1.5m w/$2.5m incentives with Orioles.
SPRO Analysis -
Baltimore pays market value for Jurrjens.  SPRO $2,165,000, which includes incentives.

Mark DeRosa signs 1 year contract for $750,000 with club option for 2nd year with Blue Jays.
SPRO Analysis -
Toronto pays market value for DeRosa.  SPRO $850,000.

Scott Hairston signs 2 year contract for $6m, plus incentives, with Cubs.
SPRO Analysis -
Chicago gets bargain in Hairston.  It will probably be worth about what SPRO said when incentives are met, but it's a good deal in case they're not.  SPRO 2 years $8,043,000.

Delmon Young signs 1 year contract for $750,000, plus $2.25m incentives, with Phillies.
SPRO Analysis -
Philadephia gets bargain in Young.  Yes, it's a bargain as far as money and production goes, but we still wouldn't have signed him.  SPRO $7,562,000 for one year; 3 year deal $23,489,000.

Players Re-Sign With Club
Kyle Farnsworth signs 1 year contract for $1.3m, including $1.3m incentives with Rays.
SPRO Analysis -
Tampa Bay gets bargain in Farnsworth.  Details still sketchy on the contract, but if it's based much on incentives as it seems, then it could be a bargain deal.  Farnsworth did not pitch much last year and is getting older, so the Rays are being prudent.  SPRO $3,775,000.

Avoiding Arbitration
Logan Ondrusek signs 2 year contract for $2.300,000, avoiding arbitration, with Reds.
SPRO Analysis -
Cincinnati gets bargain in Ondrusek.  The number's okay with SPRO at $1.23m for one year, but that extra year at the same price is good for the club.

Buster Posey signs 1 year contract for $85m, avoiding arbitration, with Giants.
SPRO Analysis -
San Francisco pays market value for Posey.  One of the best batting seasons ever by a catcher, plus a World Series crown, nets Posey this arb deal and more to come.  SPRO $8,503,000.

Hunter Pence signs 1 year contract for $13.4m, avoiding arbitration, with Giants.
SPRO Analysis -
San Francisco pays market value for Pence.  SPRO $13,456,000.  It's what Pence is worth, despite all the talk in Philly about how they're glad they didn't have to pay that.

Jacoby Ellsbury signs 1 year contract for $9m, avoiding arbitration, with Red Sox.
SPRO Analysis -
Boston pays market value for Ellsbury.  This is on the edge of an overpay due to the injury concern, but then again, this is a Boras client, so what do you expect.  Boras wants $20-25m per year for Ellsbury next year, but he's never really been worth more than $17m per even after his best seasons.  Not because he's not good; it's because he's not done it on a consisent enough basis.

Andrew Bailey signs 1 year contract for $4,100,000m, avoiding arbitration, with Red Sox.
SPRO Analysis -
Boston overpays for Bailey.  It's what they've been doing all winter.  Bailey has been steadily going downhill for the past several years, but trends don't seem to bother Boston.  SPRO $1,842,000.

Daniel Bard signs 1 year contract for $1.8625m, avoiding arbitration, with Red Sox.
SPRO Analysis -
Boston pays market value for Bard.  SPRO $1,869,000.

Andrew Miller signs 1 year contract for $1.475m, avoiding arbitration, with Red Sox.
SPRO Analysis -
Boston overpays for Miller.  SPRO $1,095,000.

James Russell signs 1 year contract for $1.075m, avoiding arbitration, with Cubs.
SPRO Analysis -
Chicago pays market value for Russell.  SPRO $1,170,000.

Jeff Samardzija signs 1 year contract for $2.65m, avoiding arbitration, with Cubs.
SPRO Analysis -
Chicago pays market value for Samardzija.  SPRO $2,130,000.

Chris Johnson signs 1 year contract for $2,287,500, avoiding arbitration, with Diamondbacks.
SPRO Analysis -
Arizona pays market value for Johnson.  SPRO $2,279,000.

Brad Ziegler signs 1 year contract for $3,150,500, avoiding arbitration, with Diamondbacks.
SPRO Analysis -
Arizona pays market value for Ziegler.  SPRO $3,208,000.

Ian Desmond signs 1 year contract for $3.8m, avoiding arbitration, with Nationals.
SPRO Analysis -
Washington pays market value for Desmond. SPRO $3,928,000.

Ross Detwiler signs 1 year contract for $2,337,500, avoiding arbitration, with Nationals.
SPRO Analysis -
Washington pays market value for Detwiler. SPRO $2,240,000.

Brennan Boesch signs 1 year contract for $2.3m, avoiding arbitration, with Tigers.
SPRO Analysis -
Detroit pays market value for Boesch.  SPRO $2,257,000.

Phil Coke signs 1 year contract for $1.85m, avoiding arbitration, with Tigers.
SPRO Analysis -
Detroit pays market value for Coke.  SPRO $1,651,000.

Alex Avila signs 1 year contract for $2.95m, avoiding arbitration, with Tigers.
SPRO Analysis -
Detroit gets bargain in Avila.  Catcher's seem to get undervalued in arbitration to use.  SPRO $4,499,000.

Austin Jackson signs 1 year contract for $3.5m, avoiding arbitration, with Tigers.
SPRO Analysis -
Detroit gets bargain in Jackson.  This is one of the best up and coming players in baseball, so maybe it's not just the catcher thing with Avila, maybe it's a Detroit thing.  SPRO $6,173,000.

Doug Fister signs 1 year contract for $4m, avoiding arbitration, with Tigers.
SPRO Analysis -
Detroit gets bargain in Fister.  The GM's done a good job this year in arb.  SPRO $5,141,000.

A.J. Ellis signs 1 year contract for $2m, avoiding arbitration, with Dodgers.
SPRO Analysis -
Los Angeles gets bargain in Ellis.  SPRO $2,927,000.

Ronald Belisario signs 1 year contract for $1.45m, avoiding arbitration, with Dodgers.
SPRO Analysis -
Los Angeles gets bargain in Belisario.  SPRO $2,063,000.  We know they're not getting bargains with the players they traded for.  Guess they're making a stand here.

Kendry Morales signs 1 year contract for $5.25, avoiding arbitration, with Mariners.
SPRO Analysis -
Seattle overpays for Morales.  SPRO $3,152,000.  Durability concerns limit value to us.

Brendan Ryan signs 1 year contract for $3.25, avoiding arbitration, with Mariners.
SPRO Analysis -
Seattle pays market value for Ryan.  SPRO $3,531,000.

Tyler Colvin signs 1 year contract for $2,275,000, avoiding arbitration, with Rockies.
SPRO Analysis -
Colorado pays market value for Colvin.  SPRO $1,947,000.

Kris Medlen signs 1 year contract for $2.6m, avoiding arbitration, with Braves.
SPRO Analysis -
Atlanta gets bargain in Medlen.  SPRO $3,873,000.

Jason Heyward signs 1 year contract for $3.65m, avoiding arbitration, with Braves.
SPRO Analysis -
Atlanta gets bargain in Heyward.  SPRO $4,782,000.

Johnny Venters signs 1 year contract for $1.625m, avoiding arbitration, with Braves.
SPRO Analysis -
Atlanta gets bargain in Venters.  SPRO $2,375,000.

Eric O'Flaherty signs 1 year contract for $4.32m, avoiding arbitration, with Braves.
SPRO Analysis -
Atlanta pays market value for O'Flaherty.  SPRO $4,105,000.

Matt Albers signs 1 year contract for $1.75m, avoiding arbitration, with Indians.
SPRO Analysis -
Cleveland gets bargain in Albers.  SPRO $3,467,000.

Justin Masterson signs 1 year contract for $5,687,500, avoiding arbitration, with Indians.
SPRO Analysis -
Cleveland pays market value for Masterson.  SPRO $5,510,000.

Joe Smith signs 1 year contract for $3,150,500, avoiding arbitration, with Indians.
SPRO Analysis -
Cleveland pays market value for Smith.  SPRO $3,552,000.

Wesley Wright signs 1 year contract for $1,025,500, avoiding arbitration, with Astros.
SPRO Analysis -
Houston pays market value for Wright.  SPRO $847,000.

Bud Norris signs 1 year contract for $3,000,000, avoiding arbitration, with Astros.
SPRO Analysis -
Houston overpays for Norris.  SPRO $2,291,000.

Jed Lowrie signs 1 year contract for $2,400,000, avoiding arbitration, with Astros.
SPRO Analysis -
Houston overpays for Lowrie.  SPRO $1,931,000.

Alexandro De Aza signs 1 year contract for $2,075,000, avoiding arbitration, with White Sox.
SPRO Analysis -
Chicago gets bargain in De Aza.  SPRO $3,009,000.

Gordon Beckham signs 1 year contract for $2,925,000, avoiding arbitration, with White Sox.
SPRO Analysis -
Chicago pays market value for Beckham.  SPRO $2,400,000.

Chris Davis signs 1 year contract for $3.3m, avoiding arbitration, with Orioles.
SPRO Analysis -
Baltimore overpays Davis.  SPRO $2,097,000.

Brian Matusz signs 1 year contract for $1.6m, avoiding arbitration, with Orioles.
SPRO Analysis -
Baltimore overpays Matusz.  SPRO $959,000.

Troy Patton signs 1 year contract for $815.000, avoiding arbitration, with Orioles.
SPRO Analysis -
Baltimore gets bargain in Patton.  SPRO $1,687,000.

Marco Estrada signs 1 year contract for $1.955m, avoiding arbitration, with Brewers.
SPRO Analysis -
Milwaukee overpays for Estrada.  SPRO $1,451,000.

Burke Badenhop signs 1 year contract for $1.55m, avoiding arbitration, with Brewers.
SPRO Analysis -
Milwaukee pays market value for Badenhop.  SPRO $1,434,000.

Matt Joyce signs 1 year contract for $2.45m, avoiding arbitration, with Rays.
SPRO Analysis -
Tampa Bay gets bargain in Joyce.  SPRO $3,342,000.

Ryan Roberts signs 1 year contract for $2.95m, avoiding arbitration, with Rays.
SPRO Analysis -
Tampa Bay pays market value for Roberts.  SPRO $2,879,000.

Luke Hochever signs 1 year contract for $4.56m, avoiding arbitration, with Royals.
SPRO Analysis -
Kansas City pays market value for Hochever.  SPRO $4,211,000.

Boone Logan signs 1 year contract for $3,150,000, avoiding arbitration, with Yankees.
SPRO Analysis -
New York overpays for Logan.  SPRO $2,378,000.

John Baker signs 1 year contract for $930,000, avoiding arbitration, with Padres.
SPRO Analysis -
San Diego pays market value for Baker.  SPRO $833,000.

Brian Duensing signs 1 year contract for $1.3m, avoiding arbitration, with Twins.
SPRO Analysis -
Minnesota pays market value for Duensing.  SPRO $1,620,000.

Ryan Webb signs 1 year contract for $975,000, avoiding arbitration, with Marlins.
SPRO Analysis -
Miami pays market value for Webb.  SPRO  $1,082,000.

Emilio Bonifacio signs 1 year contract for $2,600,000, avoiding arbitration, with Blue Jays.
SPRO Analysis -
Toronto overpays for Bonifacio.  SPRO $1,779,000.

J.A. Happ signs 1 year contract for $3,700,000, avoiding arbitration, with Blue Jays.
SPRO Analysis -
Toronto overpays for Happ.  SPRO $2,895,000.

Tommy Hanson signs 1 year contract for $3,725,000, avoiding arbitration, with Angels.
SPRO Analysis -
Los Angeles of Anaheim pays market value for Hunter.  SPRO $3,330,000.

Gregor Blanco signs 1 year contract for $1,350,000, avoiding arbitration, with Giants.
SPRO Analysis -
San Francisco pays market value for Blanco.  SPRO $1,485,000.

Antonio Bastardo signs 1 year contract for $1,400,000, avoiding arbitration, with Phillies.
SPRO Analysis -
Philadelphia pays market value for Hunter.  SPRO $1,178,000.

Gaby Sanchez signs 1 year contract for $1,750,000, avoiding arbitration, with Pirates.
SPRO Analysis -
Pittsburgh gets bargain in Sanchez  SPRO $2,532,000.

Week of January 14, 2013

Free Agent Players
Mike Napoli signs 1 year contract for $5m, including $8m incentives with Red Sox.
SPRO Analysis -
Boston gets bargain in Napoli.  When he signed the previous contract for 3 and $39m, we said, at the time, that it was a large overpay.  Just based on the numbers, Napoli was really an $8-9m per year player.  We had no idea about the potential hip condition.  This deal trends in Boston's favor, at only one year and $5m and with incentives if Napoli performs better than that.

Rafael Soriano signs 2 year contract for $28m with Nationals.
SPRO Analysis -
Washington overpays for Soriano.  Well, we always knew somebody would pay more for Soriano than the SPRO number, which, at 3 years and $25,438,000, reflects his on again, off again, on again closer role over the past three seasons.  Probably fair not to hold that against him, but, ... Soriano is not Mariano Rivera, who put up those numbers over a decade, and they're paying him like he is.

Players Re-Sign With Club
Matt Harrison signs 5 year contract extension for $55m with Rangers.  Extension also avoided arbitration.
SPRO Analysis -
Texas gets bargain in Harrison.  Young, good, and putting up just over 3.00 ERA's in that hitter's home park.  Texas does a good job of keeping this talent in house for the next five years at a good price.  SPRO 5 years $62,038,000.

Darren Oliver signs 1 year contract for $3m with Blue Jays.
SPRO Analysis -
Toronto gets bargain in Oliver.  Is this technically a new signing, maybe not, but as Oliver thought of retirement and wanted more money, we thought we'd add this here.  Oliver's been one  of the best setup men in baseball lately, and yes, he's old, but still good. A bit of an older version of Mike Adams, who just got $6m per year in Philly.  SPRO $6,295,000 for Oliver, too.

J.J. Putz signs 1 year contract extension for $7m in 2014 with Diamondbacks.
SPRO Analysis -
Arizona gets bargain in Putz.  Putz has been one of the better closers in baseball the last two seasons with an ERA under 3.00 for three years in a row.  Added to the value of this year's contract, he's getting a 2 year deal for $13.5m.  That's a bargain as well. Perhaps because his innings are in the 50 IP range and not 70 IP and he's 35 going into the season, his value was not higher, but we think he's worth $11m per season.  SPRO likes a 3 year deal at $34,355,000.

Jeff Karstens 
signs 1 year contract for $2.5m with Pirates.
SPRO Analysis -
Pittsburgh pays market value for Karstens.  Option previously not picked up and non-tendered, the Pirates brought him back at a solid value contract.  SPRO $2,953,000.

Avoiding Arbitration
Drew Butera signs 1 year contract for $700,000, avoiding arbitration, with Twins.
SPRO Analysis -
Minnesota overpays for Butera.  Nice raise for a guy who hit 0.198.  Gotta wonder why teams want to go into the arb years with players who can probably be replaced by the next guy in the minors.  SPRO $499,000.

Joba Chamberlain signs 1 year contract for $1.85m, avoiding arbitration, with Yankees.
SPRO Analysis -
New York overpays for Chamberlain.  Still waiting for all that promise to come through, as injury and under performance have so far marked this career.  SPRO $1,080,000.

Neftali Feliz signs 1 year contract for $2.9m, plus incentives, avoiding arbitration, with Rangers.
SPRO Analysis - 
Texas pays market value for Feliz.  SPRO $2,736,000.

Matt Garza signs 1 year contract for $10.3m, avoiding arbitration, with Cubs.
SPRO Analysis -
Chicago overpays for Garza.  What are the Cubs doing?  Almost every deal is a bad one for the Cubs.  Garza is on the slow, ... well, not so slow, trend down.  And went 5-7 with a 3.91 last year in just over 100 IP.  And those IP are going down, too.  Paying $10m per year for this level pitcher.  SPRO $5,923,000.

Carlos Gomez signs 1 year contract for $4.3m, avoiding arbitration, with Brewers.
SPRO Analysis -
Milwaukee pays market value for Gomez.  SPRO $3,809,000.

John Jaso signs 1 year contract for $1.8m, avoiding arbitration, with A's.
SPRO Analysis -
Oakland gets bargain in Jaso.  One of those players Beane loves with a high OBP, 0.394 last year, Jaso was one of the better catchers in baseball under the radar.  SPRO $3,187,000.

Bobby Parnell signs 1 year contract for $1.7m, avoiding arbitration, with Mets.
SPRO Analysis -
New York gets bargain in Parnell.  SPRO $2,277,000.

Tony Sipp signs 1 year contract for $1.275m, avoiding arbitration, with Diamondbacks.
SPRO Analysis -
Arizona pays market value for Sipp.  SPRO $1,169,000.

Seth Smith signs 1 year contract for $3.675m, avoiding arbitration, with A's.
SPRO Analysis -
Oaland overpays for Smith.  Not much, SPRO $2,926,000.

Drew Storen signs 1 year contract for $2.5m plus incentives, avoiding arbitration, with Nationals.
SPRO Analysis -
Washington pays market value for Storen.  SPRO $2,834,000.

Jose Mijares signs 1 year contract for $1.8m, avoiding arbitration, with Giants.
SPRO Analysis -
San Francisco pays market value for Mijares.  SPRO $1,670,000.

Drew Stubbs signs 1 year contract for $2.875, avoiding arbitration, with Indians.
SPRO Analysis -
Cleveland pays market value for Stubbs.  SPRO $3,142,000.

Jeff Niemann signs 1 year contract for $3m, avoiding arbitration, with Rays.
SPRO Analysis -
Tampa Bay overpays for Niemann.  SPRO $1,772,000.

Lou Marson signs 1 year contract for $1m, avoiding arbitration, with Indians.
SPRO Analysis -
Cleveland overpays for Marson.  SPRO $562,000.

Joe Thatcher signs 1 year contract for $1.35m, avoiding arbitration, with Padres.
SPRO Analysis -
San Diego pays market value for Thatcher.  SPRO $1,257,000.

Everth Cabrera signs 1 year contract for $1.275m, avoiding arbitration, with Padres.
SPRO Analysis -
San Diego overpays Cabrera.  SPRO $913,000.

Jarrod Saltalamachia signs 1 year contract for $4.5m, avoiding arbitration, with Red Sox.
SPRO Analysis -
Boston overpays for Saltalamachia.  One of those players who are in their 4th year of arbitration, but still within in.  Been consistent the last two years.  SPRO $3,395,000.

Will Venable signs 1 year contract for $2.65m, avoiding arbitration, with Padres.
SPRO Analysis -
San Diego pays market value for Venable.  SPRO $3,105,000.

Wilton Lopez signs 1 year contract for $1.76m, avoiding arbitration, with Rockies.
SPRO Analysis -
Colorado gets bargain in Lopez.  Sure, he toilied in barren Houston for the last few years and somehow doesn't get credit for being one of the best hybrid setup/closers in the game.  There's some talk that he's injured (reason Philly backed out of their deal), but if not, great deal.  SPRO $3,219,000.

Josh Outman signs 1 year contract for $675,000, avoiding arbitration, with Rockies.
SPRO Analysis -
Colorado pays market value for Outman. Really, it's too much, but inconsequential in baseball terms.  SPRO says just above the minumum at $503,000, due to one pretty glaring fact.  An 8.19 ERA in 2012.  But he's lefthanded, so pay him a bit more in the hope he'll rebound this year.

Phil Hughes signs 1 year contract for $7.15m, avoiding arbitration, with Yankees.
SPRO Analysis -
New York overpays for Hughes.  Inconsistent, but okay, particularly last year.  SPRO still says less than what he got, but then again, this is New York and the Yankees, so there's bound to be a premium price somewhere.  SPRO $5,218,000.

Jerome Williams signs 1 year contract for $2m, avoiding arbitration, with Angels.
SPRO Analysis -
Los Angeles of Anaheim overpays for Williams.  Yes, if you go off of just last year, is Williams worth $2m.  Yes.  But, let's remember that even last year, he pitched to a 4.58 ERA.  Not great. And for three seasons from 2008-2010, he wasn't in the majors.  This is his 2nd year in arbitration, at age 31.  It took him that long to get to that service time.  What are we saying?  There's been a lot of years in between his first couple good ones and last year's okay to think that Williams doesn't have just as good a shot at ending up this coming season in the minors as a AAAA player than in the majors.  SPRO $791,000.

George Kottaras signs 1 year contract for $1m, avoiding arbitration, with A's.
SPRO Analysis -
Oakland pays market value for Kottaras.  SPRO of $1,187,000 is right there for Kottaras, as his 2nd team of 2012 avoids the arbitration hearing route.

Colby Rasmus signs 1 year contract for $4,675,000, avoiding arbitration, with Blue Jays.
SPRO Analysis -
Toronto pays market value for Rasmus.  Right on the money for this arbitration eligible player who broke through last year. SPRO $4,522,000.

Tommy Hunter signs 1 year contract for $1,820,000, avoiding arbitration, with Orioles.
SPRO Analysis -
Baltimore overpays for Hunter.  There's a trend here in Baltimore with their approach to arbitration players.  Yes, treat them well when they're cheap, and hope it works out if they get more productive and command higher prices.  Hunter should be better than he is, but he's not.  Yes, he pitched 133 innings, but to the tune of an ERA just south of 5.50.  Not worth that far above the minimum in his first year in ARB; SPRO $995,000.

Week of January 7, 2013

Free Agent Players
Henry Blanco signs 1 year contract for $750,000 contract with Blue Jays.
SPRO Analysis - Toronto pays market value for Blanco.  SPRO $850,000 for the veteran catcher

Players Re-Sign With Club
Adam LaRoche signs 2 year contract for $24m with mutual option for 3rd year with Nationals.
SPRO Analysis - Washington overpays for LaRoche.  As we were predicting back in the early parts of November, somebody was bound to overpay for LaRoche, who had a career year in 2012, but may not produce at that level in the future.  Well, the Nationals were the ones to do it.  They're not on the hook for more money that SPRO states, but SPRO wanted a third year to get there.  SPRO projection of 3 years, $26,560,000.

Avoiding Arbitration
Nolan Reimold signs 1 year contract for $1m, avoiding arbitration, with Orioles.
SPRO Analysis - Baltimore overpays for Reimold.  It's a goodwill gesture that's not far off the mark, but Reimold's use is a concern for us as he moves forward, trending down at only 29 years of age, which makes you wonder whether he's really better than the AAAA player or emerging rookie.  SPRO $682,000 for the 1st year eligible.

Chris Narveson signs 1 year contract for $840,000 contract, avoiding arbitration, with Brewers.
SPRO Analysis - Milwaukee gets bargain in Narveson.  Only nine innings pitched in 2012 set the table for the low amount, but the two years before with over 160 IP and double digit wins indicates the potential for more.  SPRO $1,111,000.

Chris Resop signs 1 year contract for $1.35m contract, avoiding arbitration, with A's.
SPRO Analysis - Oakland overpays for Resop.  It's certainly not large as far as the amount of money in the gap between the actual and SPRO and there's logic to the number paid.  He pitched innings to a decent ERA.  It's just that the peripherals were not very good, i.e. he gave up hits and walks and his ratios weren't good.  Does that spell luck?  Or does that spell ability to get out of jams?  We'll let you decide.  SPRO $804,000.

More Hot Stove Items

Hot Stove - November 2012

Hot Stove - December 2012
Qualifying Offers Extended

Qualifying Offers Given to Nine Potential Free Agents

Nine players have been given qualifying offers of $13.3 million dollars by their team, making their current team eligible to recieve free agent compensation with a pick after the 1st round and loss of 1st or 2nd rounder to the signing team.
  • Michael Bourn, Atlanta
  • Josh Hamilton, Texas
  • Adam LaRoche, Washington
  • Kyle Lohse, St. Louis
  • Hiroki Kuroda, New York Yankees
  • Nick Swisher, New York Yankees
  • Rafael Soriano, New York Yankees
  • David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox
  • B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay


All nine players, except David Ortiz who signed back with Boston last week, have rejected the qualifying offers and are on the free agent market.  If signed by another team, that team will lose its first or second round pick with the former club receiving a pick after the first round.




 
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Note: PEVA - Player Rating for Season or Career.  Age - Age reflects player age at the end of the calendar year.

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