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Walter Johnson


How Does the Baseball Evaluation System Work?

What are your team's players really worth?
Was a favorite player from the 1950s actually better than one from today?
Does waning statistical performance, whether due to injury or not, indicate a continuing trend, or should this be discounted when accounting for salary and payroll?
Who deserves to make the Baseball Hall of Fame?

Purpose

The following parameters and premises have been utilized in the development of the Baseball Evaluation System and Stat Geek Baseball.

1. That players with high performance values, player grades, receive an exponential increase in compensation over the average player. This is accounted for by grading performance levels to year in question maximum and average values for pitchers and batters in six categories. These category grades are then blended in order to retrieve an Overall Yearly Player Grade (PEVA) for each season with a minimum level established for players who do not reach a threshold level.

2. For position players, each position, due to the numbers established for their Field Value (FV), has differing maximums and minimums. This accounts for the fact that players at various positions on the field are valued differently per offensive and defensive prowess. For example, ... a catcher has a higher premium on defense than any other position on the field and will be afforded a contract at a level higher than other positions with the same offensive capabilities. Each position, however, can achieve the Maximum Level (64/32) if their offensive capacity outpaces their defensive ability. The maximum number for all positions, including pitching, is 64, although any player who reaches a level of 32 is considered a MAXIMUM player with the number 32 used for salary considerations.

3. Of the six categories for pitching or position players, one-third are Opportunity Categories (i.e. player time). These two categories form the basis for the other four categories, the underlying girth that is built by use. If a player is used, he has value. His ability and performance in that use fleshes out his Player Grade.

4. Both pitchers and position players have one Category that is considered defensive in nature. Field Value provides that factor for a position player. Home Runs Allowed per 9 Innings Pitched and Strikeout to Walk Ratio provide that value for a pitcher. These two factors, when combined, reflect a defensive category for a pitcher since its basis does not predominantly depend on the capability of anyone else on the field except the pitcher.

5. Salary Projections (SPRO), see Stat Geek Baseball, are calculated using a Rolling Average of PEVA values (RAVE), its correlation with Major League Service Time (MLST) or the Experience Equivalent (EXPEQ), and comparison to the current minimum salary and maximum current salary.

6. PEVA and RAVE values have taken into account injuries that occurred during those seasons, but they do not attempt to evaluate the status of individual players as to their current health and value in upcoming seasons. This creates a deviation when comparing actual salaries to projected salaries. Actual baseball salaries often do not weight, in our opinion, past durability in a high enough manner. This may be the largest difference between PEVA, RAVE, and SPRO values in the Baseball Evaluation system and actual baseball salaries. However, we did not attempt to modify this difference, as we firmly believe that durability is a prime consideration in value and is often later proved accurate, and that it should have been given greater weight as the contract plays out.

Methodology

Troy Tulowitski


7. Salary projections also do not take into account a team's intention to change the use of a player in future years, thus decreasing or increasing his value. (For example, changing the player from a starter to a role player or visa versa.


Field Value Methodology

Perhaps the most controversial factor within the Baseball Evaluation System for position players is Field Value (FV), which denotes the value of Fielding for each player who has performed on the playing surface for a minimum number of innings, currently 162 innings per position (1 per maximum game played), or a total of 162 innings at multiple positions.

The Field Value player grade factor does not absolutely indicate the best fielder at any given position, although for players with a similar number of Innings Played, it can perform that function. Field Value was calculated in order to give the better fielder, whose performance on the field, as well as his availability and actual use in the field, indicated value to a team.

For example, ... a great fielder who played few innings at the position would suffer in their Field Value, no matter the reason he was not on the defensive field (offensive woes, injury, etc.). The logic being that since he played fewer defensive innings, his value to the team would have been lower. A poor fielder who plays many innings in the field benefits in his Field Value from the amount of innings played, having value in the field, even though he may not be the better fielder than someone ranked lower. It is also possible that a good fielder who plays for a team whose pitching prevents plays for a particular fielder could suffer due to that factor. However, this also indicates the lack of need for that particular team at that position and thus lowers his value. Although the greatest value would be achieved for a fielder with a great amount of innings over one with limited defensive time, it is still possible for a defensive specialist, who has played at least the minimum number of innings or games, to be ranked well. While their component for Innings or Games Played may be low, if that player is a great fielder, the factors for sure-handedness (Fielding Percentage), range (Range Factor), arm strength (Caught Stealing Percentage for catchers and Assists per 9 Innings Played for outfielders) will significantly enhance their Field Value player grade.

This can also be true for a fielder with limited range, but good hands. Although the Range Factor (Put Outs + Assists per 9 Innings Played) contributes between 25% and 33% of each position's value, a player with sure hands and a significantly high number of Innings Played can yield an above average Field Value Factor.

A common question about the value of Fielding per contractual obligations stems around a highly productive offensive player with few defensive skills. The relevance of Field Value for a great offensive player whose bat is so good no team cares about his fielding when awarding a contract is a valid concern. The Field Value is modified by other Offensive Numbers in the total PEVA Player Grade to indicate a truer picture of their value as a total player. Therefore, a great offensive player will not be punished by a low Field Value, but a great defensive player will be rewarded.



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Player Grade Categories

Pitchers
1. Games Pitched or Games Started
2. Innings Pitched
3. Wins or Saves or Wins Plus Saves
4. Walks/Hits per 9 Innings Pitched (Modified WHIP9)
5. Earned Run Average
6. Home Runs Allowed per 9 Innings Pitched and Strikeout to Walk Ratio

Position Players
1. Games Played
2. Plate Appearances
3. Run Production (Runs Scored plus Runs Batted In)
4. Slugging Percentage
5. On Base Percentage
6. Field Value: Catchers (Innings or Games Played, Fielding %, Range Factor, Caught Stealing %); Infield (Innings or Games Played, Fielding %, Range Factor); Outfield (Innings or Games Played, Fielding %, Range Factor, Assists per Game or 9 Innings Played)

Note1: ERA, HR per 9 IP, and modified WHIP (Pitchers) and Run Production, OBP, and SLG are adjusted by Park Factors.


Field Values - Position Stat and Weight

Catcher - IP/GP 25%. Fielding PCT 25%, Range Factor 25%, Caught Stealing 25%
Infield - IP/GP 33%, Fielding PCT, 33%, Range Factor 33%
Outfield - IP/GP 25%, Fielding PCT 25%, Range Factor 25%, Assists Per 9 Innings Played (or Games Played) 25%

Note 1: Prior to 2000, using Games Played.
Note 2: For Catchers, the Caught Stealing Percentage used from 1960-2006. Prior to 1960, other factors reflect 33%.
Note 3: Designated Hitter position began in 1973, but does not count toward Field Value.
Note 4: Field Value for pitchers only utilized for player whose position player value reflects above the minimum value.

PEVA Player Ratings Boxscore

Fantastic - 32.000 (MVP, Cy Young Candidate)
Great - 20.000
Very Good - 15.000 (All-Star Caliber)
Good - 10.000
Average - 3.500

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