- Hot Stove League
Week of December 28
Free Agent Signings
Scott Kazmir signs 3 year $48,000,000 contract with Dodgers.
SPRO Analysis - Los Angeles overpays for Kazmir. Big dropoff from Greinke, of course, both in ability and dollars. SPRO 3 years $31,618,000.
Stephen Drew signs 1 year $3,000,000 contract with Nationals, plus $1.25m incentives.
SPRO Analysis - Washington pays market value for Drew. SPRO $3,611,000.
Week of December 21
Free Agent Signings
Daniel Murphy signs 3 year $37,500,000 contract with Nationals.
SPRO Analysis - Washington pays market value for Murphy. SPRO 3 years $33,100,000.
John Jaso signs 2 year $8,000,000 contract with Pirates.
SPRO Analysis - Pittsburgh overpays for Jaso. SPRO 2 years $6,410,000.
Alejandro De Aza signs 1 year $4,500,000 contract with Mets.
SPRO Analysis - New York Mets get bargain in De Aza. SPRO $6,166,000.
Mike Leake signs 5 year $80,000,000 contract with Cardinals, plus mutual option 6th year $13-14m.
SPRO Analysis - St. Louis overpays for Leake. SPRO 3 years $34,069,000.
Week of December 14
Re-Signed with Club
Bartolo Colon signs 1 year $7,250,000 contract with Mets.
SPRO Analysis - New York Mets get bargain in Colon. SPRO$11,359,000. Yes, he's old, but he keeps coming up with good seasons. They say he had deals for more from other teams, but wanted to stay in New York. He was worth it.
Hisashi Iwakuma signs 1 year $12,000,000 contract with Mariners, including $2,500,000 incentives per year plus two year options guaranteed with 162 IP for $14m and $15m.
SPRO Analysis - Mariners overpay for Iwakuma. Not much on year one, but a bit, considering it's not guaranteed past that. SPRO 3 year $34,271,000; $11,033,000 for 2016.
Jerry Blevins signs 1 year $4,000,000 contract with Mets, including $1m incentives.
SPRO Analysis - New York overpays for Blevins. One of those players coming off injury; always curious to why clubs want to overpay for them. SPRO $1,347,000.
Sean Rodriguez signs 1 year $2,500,000 contract with Pirates, including $500,000 incentives.
SPRO Analysis - Pittsburgh overpays for Rodriguez. SPRO 1 year $1,598,000. OPS drop two years straight. AAAA player at this point.
Adam Ottavino signs 3 year $10,400,000 contract with Rockies, avoiding arbitration ($1.3m, $2.1m, $7m).
SPRO Analysis - Colorado pays market value for Ottavino. We wouldn't have extended him, but the value is okay, SPRO 1 year $1,757,000.
Jarrod Parker signs 1 year $850,000 contract with Athletics ($425,000 guarantee).
SPRO Analysis - Oakland pays market value for Parker. SPRO 1 year $1,146,000. Might have got off a bit cheap; tough to value after two years out, but promising career start.
Nate Jones signs 3 year $8,000,000 contract with White Sox, team options $4.65m, $5.15m and mutual option $6m with $1.25m buyout per first two option seasons. There are also adjustments allowed per injury status.
SPRO Analysis - Chicago White Sox overpay for Jones. SPRO 1 year $921,000. Absolutely no good enough reason to extend Jones like this after two years when he pitched a total of 19 innings. They had one more year of arbitration to go to see whether he recovered to a form that really only lasted his rookies season anyway.
Colby Lewis signs 1 year $6,000,000 contract with Rangers.
SPRO Analysis - Texas gets bargain in Lewis. SPRO $7,512,000.
Jeff Mathis signs 1 year $1,500,000 contract with Marlins, plus $100,000 incentives.
SPRO Analysis - Miami overpays for Mathis. SPRO $950,000.
Johnny Cueto signs 6 year $130,000,000 contract with Giants, including after year 2 opt-out and 7th year option.
SPRO Analysis - San Francisco gets bargain in Cueto. Okay, we admit it, a bit hard to quantify what that opt-out is worth, but for us, this is a better sign on a per money basis than the Price signing. SPRO 6 years $142,694,000.
Mike Napoli signs 1 year $7,000,000 contract with Indians, plus $3m incentives.
SPRO Analysis - Clevelands pays market value for Napoli. Might be a little high with the incentives, but it's okay. SPRO $6,821,000.
Rajai Davis signs 1 year $5,250,000 contract with Indians, plus $1,225,000 incentives.
SPRO Analysis - Cleveland pays market value for Davis. A little high on the year plus incentives, but okay. We'd have been okay with a second year at slightly lower value. SPRO $4,735,000.
Daniel Nava signs 1 year $1,375,000 contract with Angels.
SPRO Analysis - Los Angeles of Anaheim gets bargain in Nava. Down two years in a row and it might be a trend at 32 years of age, but we think Nava will rebound off last year. SPRO $2,321,000.
Steve Cishek signs 2 year $10,000,000 contract with Mariners, including $3.5m incentives per year.
SPRO Analysis - Seattle pays market value for Cishek. SPRO 2 years $13,010,000, including all incentives.
Mike Aviles signs 1 year $2,000,000 contract with Tigers, including $300,000 incentives.
SPRO Analysis - Detroit pays market value for Aviles. SPRO $2,187,000.
Ryan Vogelsong signs 1 year $2,000,000 contract with Pirates, including $3,000,000 incentives.
SPRO Analysis - Pittsburgh pays market value for Vogelsong. SPRO $2,785,000, including incentives
Henderson Alvarez signs 1 year $4,250,000 contract with A's, including $1,600,000 incentives.
SPRO Analysis - Oakland overpays for Alvarez. Again, slightly above our value of SPRO 1 year $3,694,000.
Week of December 7
Re-Signed with Club
Darren O'Day signs 4 year $31,000,000 contract with Orioles.
SPRO Analysis - Baltimore gets bargain in O'Day. We would have liked one year shorter, but the per year numbers are low, especially when you consider that O'Day, unlike some other recently signed relievers, has been healthy and productive in four straight years and might even be getting better. SPRO 3 years $28,698,000.
Trevor Cahill signs 1 year $4,250,000 contract with Cubs.
SPRO Analysis - Chicago Cubs overpay for Cahill. SPRO $1,858,000. Three year Rolling Average of Cahill's ability has decreased for three straight years. Yes, we know $4m is chump change anymore, but it's still more change than we'd give Cahill till he can prove more.
Chris Young signs 2 year $11,750,000 contract with Royals.
SPRO Analysis - Kansas City pays market value for Young. SPRO $12,013,000.
John Axford signs 1 year $1,000,000 contract with A's.
SPRO Analysis - Oakland get bargain in Axford. SPRO $2,691,000.
Jeff Samardzija signs 5 year $90,000,000 contract with Giants.
SPRO Analysis - San Francisco overpays for Samardzija. We just don't think he's worth this type of money. More flash over substance, although he does give you innings. They just add up to a 4.96 ERA in 2015 and a career record 14 games below 0.500. SPRO 3 years $31,343,000.
Ben Zobrist signs 4 year $56,000,000 contract with Cubs.
SPRO Analysis - Chicago Cubs overpay for Zobrist. We like Ben, but he's been regressing for three straight years. PEVA 16,786, 11.215, 9.879, 8.879 (incl. playoffs). That's not good for a 34 year old. SPRO 3 years $28,718,000.
Tyler Flowers signs 2 year $5,300,000 contract with Braves, including $1.5m incentives per year and $4m option for 3rd year.
SPRO Analysis - Atlanta pays market value for Flowers. SPRO 2 years $6,014,000. Asdrubel Cabrera signs 2 year $18,500,000 contract with Mets plus 2018 option.
SPRO Analysis - New York Mets pay market value for Cabrera. SPRO 3 years $29,034,000.
Jason Heyward signs 8 year $184,000,000 contract with Cubs.
SPRO Analysis - Chicago Cubs overpay for Heyward. See below. SPRO 4 years $51,256,000.
Tony Sipp signs 3 year $18,000,000 contract with Astros.
SPRO Analysis - Houston overpays for Sipp. SPRO 2 years $8,484,000.
Jonathan Broxton signs 2 year $7,500,000 contract with Cardinals.
SPRO Analysis - St. Louis overpays for Broxton. SPRO 1 years $2,539,000.
Mark Reynolds signs 1 year $2,600,000 contract, plus incentives, with Rockies.
SPRO Analysis - Colorado gets bargain in Reynolds. SPRO 2 years $7,591,000.
Shawn Kelley signs 3 year $15,500,000 contract with Nationals.
SPRO Analysis - Washington overpays for Kelley. SPRO 1 year $2,488,000.
Oliver Perez signs 2 year $7,000,000 contract with Nationals.
SPRO Analysis - Washington overpays for Perez. SPRO 1 year $1,898,000.
Jason Motte signs 2 year $10,000,000 contract with Rockies.
SPRO Analysis - Colorado overpays for Motte. Since his injury year in 2013, Motte has had a 4.68 ERA in St. Louis, and a 3.91 ERA in Cub land. Nice progression. Now he's heading to Colorado at the age of 34. Good luck. SPRO 1 year $1,155,000.
Chad Qualls signs 2 year $12,000,000 contract with Rockies.
SPRO Analysis - Colorado overpays for Qualls. For a guy pitching in his 38 and 39 year old seasons, $6 million dollars a year. Last three years, ERA's of 2.61, 3.33, 4.38. WTG Rockies, looking forward to that above 5.00 in 2016. SPRO 1 year $3,118,000.
Ryan Madson signs 3 year $22,000,000 contract with A's, including $1.25m per year in incentives.
SPRO Analysis - Oakland overpays for Madson. And these used to be the sane guys. Madson had a comeback year in 2015 after three years out with injury. He had it at 35 years of age. He'll be pitching this contract at 36-38, when normal decreases in performance occur. So, no track record of health, and age. No thanks at those numbers. SPRO 1 year $3,226,000. Yes, he's worth more than that if healthy, but that's still not proven to us. And yes, we're perfectly willing to pay a setup type guy this type of money. (See Darren O'Day) But we want more track record of both.
Mark Lowe signs 2 year $11,000,000 contract with Tigers.
SPRO Analysis - Detroit overpays for Lowe. SPRO 1 year $2,623,000. Lowe had a good year in 2015, his best at age 32, but there's nothing in his past that says he can do it again. Of course, he might, but we'd be wary of that. 9-23 for his career, $5.5m per year. Not a bad time to be a pitcher.
Joakim Soria signs 3 year $25,000,000 contract with Royals.
SPRO Analysis - Kansas City overpays for Soria. Yes, Soria has rebounded over the past two seasons to a pitcher worth about $7 million per year, if you discount the years before. We still think they're relevant. SPRO 2 years $10,796,000.
Chase Utley signs 1 year $7,000,000 contract with Dodgers.
SPRO Analysis - LA Dodgers pay market value for Utley. Very down year in 2015, but still with value due to first part of 2014 with possibility of a rebound. SPRO $6,880,000.
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